Bayern the Overwhelming Favorite as Struggling Union Berlin Visit the Allianz Arena

The Allianz Arena hosts a matchup with little doubt about the script: FC Bayern München, fourth in the Bundesliga, against a 1. FC Union Berlin side sitting second-to-last with the worst goal difference in the league alongside Hamburger SV. Our model gives Vincent Kompany's team a 90 percent chance of winning, so it's worth breaking down why the scale is tipped so heavily in one direction.

Bayern have won just about everything lately with one hiccup: in the league they've gone 2-1-0 in 3 matches, with 7 goals scored and only 2 allowed. Over their last five matches the trend is even clearer, with four wins and a draw. On top of that, across a sample of 3 Bundesliga 2026 matches home and away, the team is averaging 2.33 goals scored and just 0.67 conceded, with Dayot Upamecano, Michael Olise and Harry Kane among those who have already scored in that stretch.

Union Berlin's outlook is the polar opposite. So far this season they haven't won a single match: 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 4 goals scored and 10 allowed. Recent form doesn't help the picture either, with two wins, a draw and their two most recent matches ending in defeat over their last five games. In that same 3-match Bundesliga 2026 sample home and away, the team has conceded an average of 3.33 goals per match and hasn't kept a single clean sheet; Tim Skarke, with 2 goals, is their top attacking threat in that stretch.

A History That Weighs Heavily

If anything confirms the underlying feeling, it's the head-to-head record: of the 8 matches played between these two clubs, Bayern won 5 and 3 ended in draws, with Union Berlin yet to register a single victory. The aggregate goal difference, 22 for the Bavarians against 7 for the Berlin side, makes clear that this dominance isn't just a product of this season.

Probable Lineups

Bayern's projected lineup, though drawn from recent matches and carrying low reliability, points to Jonas Urbig in goal, a back line of Upamecano, Kim Min-Jae, Nathaniel Brown and Alphonso Davies, and Harry Kane up top flanked by Michael Olise and Luis Díaz in the attacking midfield. On the visitors' side, the probable XI has Frederik Rønnow in goal, Tom Rothe as a fixture in the back line, and Emmanuel Latte Lath and Ilyas Ansah leading the line up front.

What the Numbers Say

These are numbers that leave little room for surprise: our model projects a total of 4.76 expected goals for the match, and the trends back that up, with an 83 percent chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 44 percent chance both teams score. As always, worth noting: this is an in-house estimate built from the season's trends, not a betting line or a closed-off prediction.

With Bayern sitting near the top of the table and Union Berlin fighting to avoid sinking further into the bottom of the standings, the match at the Allianz Arena looks more like a test of endurance for the visitors than an even contest. The Bundesliga will put a team that hasn't lost in a long while up against one still chasing its first taste of joy this season.