Last-place Juarez stuns Queretaro 3-1 despite being outplayed

Juarez arrived as Liga MX's bottom club, with just 8 points from 15 games, yet it was the team that turned the match on its head against Queretaro at Estadio Olimpico Benito Juarez. The final score, 3-1, was built in just 22 minutes of the first half and sealed with a third goal late on, before the visitors put a gloss on the result in stoppage time.

The match opened with a scare for Queretaro: in the 10th minute, VAR reviewed a possible penalty in its favor and ruled that no foul had occurred. Just six minutes later, Juarez struck first: Oscar Estupinan made it 1-0 in the 16th minute with a close-range header from the right side of the box. Queretaro had immediate answers, a shot from Ali Avila that crashed off the crossbar and another from Estupinan that hit the opposite post, but it was the home side that struck again before the break: in the 38th minute, Madson finished with his left foot from outside the area after a counterattack led by Denzell Garcia, and the first half ended 2-0 for Juarez.

The second half told a different story. Queretaro took control of the ball and began piling up chances: Iker Benito, Ali Avila and Mateo Coronel tried their luck again and again without finding the net. Juarez, sitting deep, held on through Gustavo Lema's substitutions until it struck again at the worst possible moment for its rival: in the 82nd minute, Jose Luis Rodriguez poked home a low finish by the left post to make it 3-0, seemingly putting the game away. Queretaro pulled one back in the 88th minute through Ali Avila, assisted by Coronel, but there was no time left for any more surprises.

A dominance the scoreboard didn't show

The statistics tell a different story than the result. Queretaro was clearly superior in possession and attacking volume, but it couldn't turn that into goals until the very end.

Our expected goals estimate based on the match's shots points in the same direction: Queretaro generated 2.823 xG against 1.896 for Juarez. In other words, the visiting side created more and better chances, but Juarez's efficiency in its key moments, three goals from a relatively low shot count, ended up deciding the result.

The contrast with our pre-match projection also gives pause. Beforehand we had calculated a 36% win probability for Juarez, a 30% chance of a draw and 34% for Queretaro, with expected goals of 1.33 for the home side and 1.27 for the visitors. The final result, with three goals from the bottom-place club against a rival that dominated possession and shots, strayed quite far from the balance we had anticipated.

What it means in the standings

In the table, Juarez remains last with 8 points from 15 games and a goal difference of -22, though these three points provide some breathing room in a tournament that had largely eluded the club until now. Queretaro, which came in ninth with 20 points, leaves empty handed despite dominating much of the match. The two sides are separated by 12 points in the standings, a gap this match's scoreline did nothing to reflect.