Freiburg wins down to ten men, stays atop the Bundesliga

Freiburg was reduced to ten men with half an hour still to play and still managed to pull out the win. At the Europa-Park Stadion, the home side beat FC Schalke 04 2-1, with a late goal from Keisuke Goto breaking a tie that had held since the first half.

The hosts came out on the front foot. In the 9th minute, off a corner kick, Maximilian Eggestein finished with his left foot from close range to make it 1-0. Schalke 04 wasn't long in responding, though: twenty minutes later, also from a corner, Kenan Karaman leveled it with a strike from the center of the box, set up by Adrian Gantenbein, and the score read 1-1 heading into the break.

Things got harder for Freiburg shortly after the hour mark. In the 63rd minute, Yuito Suzuki picked up a second yellow card for dangerous play, leaving his side down to ten. It looked like the moment for Schalke 04 to press their numerical advantage, but it was Freiburg that found the winner instead: in the 84th minute, Keisuke Goto, who had just come on, headed home a cross from Vincenzo Grifo, also a recent substitute, to make it a final 2-1.

A dominant performance by the numbers

Beyond the narrow scoreline, Freiburg was better in nearly every statistical category, something the expected goals numbers also back up: the home side posted an xG of 1.62 against Schalke 04's 0.37, a wide gap for a match that ended up decided by a single goal.

The pre-match numbers had pointed in this direction: our projection gave Freiburg a 63% chance of winning, compared to 14% for Schalke 04 and 23% for a draw, with expected goals of 2.07 for the home side and 0.90 for the visitors. The final result, with the red card factored in, ended up closer than those numbers suggested, but Freiburg's win confirmed the favorite status it carried into kickoff.

What it means in the standings

With this result, Freiburg reaches 13 points from five matches played, with four wins and a draw, and remains atop the Bundesliga table. Schalke 04, meanwhile, sits on 5 points after one win, two draws and two losses in the same number of matches, leaving an 8-point gap between the two sides in the standings.

The match had a bit of everything: two goals from corner kicks, a red card that could have changed the story, and a finish decided by two players who came off the bench. Freiburg weathered the man disadvantage with patience and found the goal it needed right when it mattered most.