Freiburg, unbeaten with a perfect 8-0 record, hosts a struggling Schalke 04

Freiburg comes into this one unbeaten in the Bundesliga, with three wins and a draw in four matches, and on Sunday hosts FC Schalke 04 at the Europa-Park Stadion. Schalke has won just one of its last four. On paper, and based on history, everything points to a comfortable afternoon for the home side. Will it really be that simple?

Julian Schuster's team sits third with 10 points, level with Bayern München and Bayer Leverkusen, and just three behind league leaders Borussia Dortmund. So far this season it has three wins, one draw and zero losses, with 12 goals scored and only 3 conceded. It's also riding a strong run of form: four wins and a draw in its last five matches, with no losses. As an extra data point, in this 2026 Bundesliga season Freiburg is averaging 3 goals scored and just 0.75 conceded per match across home and away games, with clean sheets in half of those outings. Yuito Suzuki leads the team in that span with 4 goals, followed by Igor Matanovic with 3.

Schalke 04, on the other hand, is going through a far grayer stretch. The club sits 11th with 5 points, the product of one win, two draws and a loss in four matches, scoring just 3 goals while conceding 4. Over its last five matches things improve only slightly: two wins, two draws and a loss. In that same sample outside the 2026 Bundesliga numbers, Miron Muslic's side is averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1 conceded per match, also keeping a clean sheet in half of those games.

The head-to-head record doesn't leave much room for an upset either: in the 8 meetings on record, Freiburg has won all 8, with a combined goal difference of 24 to 0. It's a decisive trend, though worth remembering it's exactly that, history, not a guarantee of what happens this Sunday.

Probable lineups

Freiburg is expected to field Mio Backhaus in goal, a back line of Matthias Ginter, Philipp Lienhart, Jordy Makengo and Philipp Treu, and a midfield of Maximilian Eggestein, Yuito Suzuki, Derry Scherhant, Niklas Beste and Yannik Engelhardt, with Igor Matanovic leading the line. This lineup is projected from recent matches and carries high reliability. Schalke 04 could start with Loris Karius in goal, Nikola Katic, Timo Becker and Hasan Kuruçay in defense, Soufiane El-Faouzi, Dejan Ljubicic, Robin Gosens, Satoshi Tanaka and Junior Dina Ebimbe in midfield, and Adil Aouchiche alongside Moussa Sylla up front. In this case the projection carries medium reliability, so there's more room for changes.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Freiburg a wide edge, though it doesn't completely shut the door on other outcomes:

This is our own estimate drawn from season trends, not a betting line or a locked-in prediction. The breakdown makes Freiburg the clear favorite, though it doesn't rule out a draw, which emerges as the second most likely outcome. Our model's expected goals are 2.07 for Freiburg and 0.90 for Schalke, for an estimated total of 2.96, in line with the 63% probability that the match goes over 2.5 goals. The chance of both teams scoring, meanwhile, sits at just 25%.

With Freiburg settled among the Bundesliga's best and a Schalke side that needs to turn things around away from home, the Europa-Park Stadion hosts a match with a clear favorite, though the numbers also leave a narrow opening for the visitors to hold firm.