Hoffenheim holds off Schalke 04 rally to win 2-1 despite being outplayed

It took just nine minutes for Fisnik Asllani to put TSG Hoffenheim ahead, and before the clock hit the quarter hour mark of the second half, Schalke 04 already found themselves down 2-0. In the end, the score settled at 2-1 at the SNP Arena, in a Bundesliga match that Hoffenheim managed better than the stats would suggest.

The first half followed a clear script: Asllani finished with his right foot from the center of the box, just inside the left post, for the 1-0. Then just sixteen minutes later, in the 25th minute, Asllani himself set up Tim Lemperle, who struck a left-footed shot into the middle of the goal to make it 2-0. That was the score at halftime, and Schalke, despite creating danger early on through attempts from Kenan Karaman, Dejan Ljubicic and Adil Aouchiche in the opening minutes, had nothing to show for it.

The second half told a different story. Schalke came out with more purpose, hit the post through Aouchiche in the 56th minute and pushed forward more and more. The goal finally arrived in the 80th minute: after a corner kick, substitute Junior Adamu finished with his right foot from close range to make it 2-1. It was the reward for a second half in which the visitors threw everything forward, but it wasn't enough to level the score. Hoffenheim, bringing on Adam Hlozek, Bernardo, Adam Daghim and Max Moerstedt, focused on holding firm and managing the closing stretch, which stretched into a lengthy stoppage time.

The numbers behind the match

The stats tell a different story than the scoreline. Schalke 04 dominated possession and was far more insistent in attempts on goal, but Hoffenheim's efficiency made the difference.

Schalke's edge in shot volume also shows up in the expected goals estimated after the fact: our model gives the visitors 3.167 expected goals against 2.019 for the home side. In other words, based on the chances created, Schalke deserved more than what the scoreline ultimately reflected, though the finishing from Asllani and Lemperle in the first half proved decisive.

The result also contrasts with our preview projections. We gave Hoffenheim a 57% chance to win, 25% for a draw and just 18% for Schalke, with expected goals of 1.90 for the home side and 0.99 for the visitors (2.89 combined). The final score, 2-1, ended up matching the favoritism we gave Hoffenheim, though the actual match was considerably more even than those numbers suggested, especially in the second half.

What it means in the standings

In the Bundesliga table, TSG Hoffenheim came into the match in ninth place with 12 points from 9 games played, while Schalke 04 sat 17th with 6 points from the same number of matches, a 6 point gap between the two sides heading into this round. The win lets Hoffenheim keep building in midtable, while Schalke, who showed a gutsy response in the second half, once again comes up short on the scoreboard despite outcreating their opponent for long stretches of the match.