Milan collapses at home: up 2-1, they end up thrashed 2-4 by Bologna

Milan was up 2-1 and controlling the ball at will at San Siro. And yet they still ended up losing 2-4 to Bologna, who pulled off a comeback that began with an own goal and was sealed by a hat trick from Samuel Mbangula. A match Milan had under control slipped away in barely half an hour of the second half.

The opening minutes already hinted this would not be a routine evening. In the 7th minute, Mbangula put Bologna ahead with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Nadir Zortea. Milan answered quickly: in the 13th, Alphadjo Cisse equalized, also with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, and in the 26th he struck again, this time finishing with his left foot from close range, right by the post, assisted by Fikayo Tomori, to make it 2-1 at halftime.

The story flipped completely in the second half. In the 59th minute, an own goal by Davide Bartesaghi leveled things at 2-2. Two minutes later, in the 61st, Mbangula struck again, this time set up by Juan Miranda, to make it 2-3. Bologna never let go of the lead, and in the closing stretch, in the 85th minute, Mbangula completed his hat trick with a third right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Jens Odgaard, to seal the final 2-4.

Numbers that don't match the scoreline

What's striking is that the stats tell a different story than the result does. Milan dominated possession and the ball, but Bologna was more effective in the final third.

With 66.4 percent possession and 671 passes to 338, Milan was clearly the team carrying the ball. But Bologna had more shots on target (5 to 3) and more big chances (4 to 3), and made better use of them. In the post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken in the game, the split came out nearly even: 1.917 for Milan versus 1.947 for Bologna, a figure that confirms there was no real gap in chance creation, even though the final score ended up lopsided in the visitors' favor.

The contrast with the pre-match projections is notable. Beforehand we gave Milan a 50 percent chance of winning, 29 percent for a draw, and just 21 percent for Bologna, with expected goals of 1.55 for the home side and 0.93 for the visitors. None of that held up: the team with the fewest chances on paper was the one that walked away with all three points, and by a comfortable margin on the final scoreboard.

What the standings show

In the Serie A table, Milan came into this match in fifth place with 18 points from 9 games played (5 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss), while Bologna sat in 11th with 11 points from the same 9 games (3 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses). The gap between the two sides before this clash stood at 7 points. A loss like this, after leading and dominating possession, leaves Milan with the feeling of having squandered a clear advantage, while Bologna walks away with a result that carries far more weight than the run of play suggested.