Port Vale sweat it out but advance in FA Cup with 4-2 win over Scunthorpe United

It took four minutes of stoppage time for Vale Park to go from alarm to relief. Port Vale were cruising 3-0 and looked to have the tie wrapped up, but Scunthorpe United scored twice in the space of four minutes late on to throw everything into doubt, before Oliver Lynch, in the 94th minute, struck the decisive 4-2 in this FA Cup clash.

The match got off to a fast start, with Port Vale setting the tone early. In the 7th minute, Keyrol Figueroa finished with his right foot from the center of the box, low and into the left corner, after an assist from Jaheim Headley, to make it 1-0. With that cushion, the home side cruised through the rest of the first half without much trouble, though Rhys Walters and George Hall both had chances of their own that went unconverted.

The story repeated itself at the start of the second half, as Port Vale struck early once again. In the 57th minute, Onel Hernandez, set up by Figueroa, fired right-footed from the center of the box through the middle of the goal to make it 2-0. Four minutes later, with Figueroa having been replaced by Max Watters, the third goal arrived: Watters capitalized on a counterattack started by a Headley pass to finish by the left post and make it 3-0. Shortly after, Watters himself rattled the crossbar with another shot, a sign of just how total the home side's control of the game had become.

The late scare

With the result seemingly settled, Scunthorpe United found their only way back into the game on the counter, and that is exactly where the comeback started. In the 85th minute, James Norwood headed home into the top left corner off an assist from Regan Clayton to make it 3-1. Four minutes later, Declan Howe, assisted by James Gale, finished right-footed into the right side of the net to make it 3-2, setting off alarm bells at Vale Park as the clock wound down. The referee added six minutes of stoppage time, and in the 94th minute, Oliver Lynch sealed it with a right-footed strike from outside the box, by the left post, assisted by George Byers, to make the final score 4-2.

The match stats reflect fairly well what played out on the field: a dominant Port Vale side in terms of possession and attacking output, which nonetheless showed defensive cracks that Scunthorpe United exploited in the closing minutes.

Before the match, our projection gave Port Vale a 32% chance of winning, a 31% chance of a draw and a 37% chance for Scunthorpe United, with expected goals of 1.15 for the home side and 1.24 for the visitors. The outcome ended up far from that script: the home side not only won, but opened up a three-goal lead before the visitors narrowed the gap late on. Port Vale's attacking output, with seven shots on target compared to three for their opponents, also far outpaced what that initial projection had anticipated.

Scunthorpe United, managed by Jacob Butterfield, committed twice as many fouls as their opponents (12 to 6) and were never able to counter Port Vale's territorial dominance under Jon Brady, though their late surge, with two goals in four minutes, showed the match was closer to getting away from the home side than the scoreline through the first hour suggested.

For Port Vale, the result leaves a clear win in the FA Cup, though also a warning sign: a three-goal lead was not without its scares, and the match was not truly settled until stoppage time.