Rio Ave battles back with ten men to beat Nacional 3-2 in wild Liga Portugal clash

Down to ten men for more than half an hour and chasing the game from 1-2 down, Rio Ave found a way to win a match it had made unnecessarily difficult for itself. At the Estadio do Rio Ave, the home side ended up winning 3-2 over CD Nacional in a Liga Portugal clash that had everything: a header, a red card, a comeback in five minutes and a penalty late on.

Nacional went ahead in the 31st minute with a header from Abdel Njoya from the center of the box, after a corner kick flicked on by Francisco Goncalves. Rio Ave responded quickly: seven minutes later, Sebastian Clemmensen equalized from point-blank range on the right side of the box to make it 1-1, the score at halftime.

The game turned on its head in the 53rd minute, when Joao Tome picked up a second yellow card for dangerous play and left Rio Ave with ten men. Far from folding, the home side pushed forward a man down and in the 56th minute Diogo Bezerra finished from the center of the box, assisted by Clemmensen, to make it 2-1. The joy didn't last long: two minutes later, Njoya scored his second goal of the afternoon, also from point-blank range, to level it at 2-2.

With the score tied and a man down, Rio Ave found its path to victory from the penalty spot. In the 68th minute, VAR reviewed a foul by Danel Dongmo on Jalen Blesa inside the box and awarded a penalty. Three minutes later, Blesa himself converted the spot kick to the right side of the goal for the final 3-2. Nacional pushed until the end, with chances for Miguel Baeza and Allen Obando in stoppage time, but couldn't find the equalizer.

What the numbers say

Nacional was sharper in clear-cut chances despite playing with a man advantage for more than half an hour, while Rio Ave controlled the ball more and created more shots on target.

According to our expected goals estimate calculated from the match's shots, Rio Ave generated 1.986 xG against 1.874 for Nacional: a razor-thin difference that reflects just how even the match was, beyond the final score.

The preview we published ahead of the match gave Rio Ave a 36% chance of winning, 30% for a draw and 34% for Nacional, with a total expected goals figure of 2.59. The final score produced five goals, above that projection, and the result fairly favored the team that came in as the slight favorite, though it did so the hardest way possible: playing with ten men from the 53rd minute on.

In the standings, this win leaves Rio Ave with 7 points after eight matches played, while Nacional sits on 4 points from the same number of games, just 3 points separating the two sides. Neither team is having a good run in the tournament so far, but Rio Ave walks away with a win that, given how it came about (a man down for more than half an hour and coming back from a tie in five minutes), carries more weight than the gap in the standings suggests.