Estudiantes de La Plata Knocks Out Flamengo on Penalties to Reach Copa Libertadores Final

The Maracana went silent right when it seemed least likely. Flamengo dominated, attacked, created chances, and still ended up losing on penalties. Estudiantes de La Plata booked its spot in the Copa Libertadores final after a 0-0 draw through 90 minutes and a 3-2 win in the shootout. The scoreline after regulation settled nothing. Everything came down to the spot kicks, with nerves stretched to the limit.

The match was the semifinal of the Copa Libertadores, and both sides arrived at the Maracana having taken very different roads to get there. Flamengo had eliminated Cruzeiro in the round of 16 and Independiente del Valle in the quarterfinals, while Estudiantes de La Plata had gotten past Universidad Catolica and then Corinthians. None of that carried much weight on the field, though. What played out was a tight, cagey match, with Flamengo pushing from the opening whistle and Estudiantes sitting deep to absorb the pressure.

A scoreless game, but not one without a story

The script was clear early on: Flamengo with the ball, Estudiantes waiting for its moment. In the 8th minute, Lucas Paqueta had the first real chance off a Pedro assist, but his left-footed effort sailed well over the bar. Estudiantes answered with a string of attempts between the 15th and 21st minutes, with Leandro Gonzalez Pirez and Marcos Rojo testing things from close range, without luck.

The match changed dramatically at the start of the second half. Moments after the restart, Leandro Gonzalez Pirez picked up a yellow card in the 48th minute, and four minutes later, in the 49th, Baltasar Rodriguez was sent off with a second yellow for dangerous play. Estudiantes de La Plata were left with ten men for more than 40 minutes and had to dig in against a Flamengo side that threw everything at them.

With the extra man, Flamengo produced the clearest chances of the match: Paqueta tested the goalkeeper in the 50th and 57th minutes, Giorgian De Arrascaeta and Samuel Lino had looks after coming on, and Gonzalo Plata nearly scored with a header in the 81st. But the Estudiantes goal, defended by ten men, held firm. The 0-0 scoreline survived into stoppage time, with Tiago Palacios squandering the visitors' last chance in the 94th minute.

The shootout that changed everything

In the shootout, Giorgian De Arrascaeta opened the scoring for Flamengo, but Jose Sosa leveled it right away for Estudiantes. Jorginho missed Flamengo's second attempt, and although Edwuin Cetre also missed for Estudiantes, Lucas Paqueta failed to convert for the home side as well. Eros Mancuso and Leo Pereira both scored afterward, but it was Tiago Palacios who made it 3-2, and Bruno Henrique had his final attempt go begging for Flamengo. In the end, Estudiantes de La Plata took the shootout 3-2.

The numbers behind a dominance that fell short

The stats paint the picture of a one-sided match in which possession and volume of play never translated into goals.

According to our post-match expected goals estimate based on the shots taken, Estudiantes de La Plata generated 1.476 xG against Flamengo's 0.864, a number that stands in sharp contrast to the huge gap in possession and passing. It confirms that, even while playing almost the entire second half with a man down, Estudiantes made the most of the few chances it had.

The result also diverges quite a bit from our pre-match projections: we gave Flamengo a 58% chance of winning, against just 14% for Estudiantes, with a 28% chance of a draw. The expected goals totals we had going into the match were 1.60 for Flamengo and 0.68 for Estudiantes, a combined 2.28, well above what ultimately unfolded on the field.

Flamengo will be left with the feeling of having done more than enough to win, with nearly 76% possession and double the shots of its opponent. But in soccer, and especially in a Copa Libertadores semifinal, it's the team that converts its penalties that moves on. Estudiantes de La Plata, playing a man down for most of the match, punched its ticket from twelve yards out.