Flamengo tops Cruzeiro 2-1 at the Maracana to advance in the Copa Libertadores

Flamengo shook off an early second-half scare to beat 2-1 Cruzeiro at Estadio do Maracana in the second leg of the round of 16 of the Copa Libertadores. The home side had won the first leg 1-1... wait, actually drawn 1-1 away, and now picked up another positive result at home against an opponent that made things difficult for long stretches of the second half.

The path for both clubs to this stage had been identical: Flamengo and Cruzeiro drew 1-1 in the first leg, with Cruzeiro hosting. That result left everything open for Tuesday's match at the Maracana.

How the match was decided

Flamengo dominated the first half with persistence, creating chances through Arrascaeta, Pedro and Samuel Lino, but it wasn't until the 34th minute that the pressure paid off: Giorgian de Arrascaeta finished with his right foot from inside the box, into the top corner, off an assist from Pedro, making it 1-0 at the break.

The second half opened with a jolt for the home side: right at the restart, in the 50th minute, Lucas Romero leveled things for Cruzeiro with a low shot from outside the box, assisted by Gerson, making it 1-1 and setting off alarm bells at the Maracana. Flamengo responded quickly, though, and eleven minutes later, in the 61st minute, Samuel Lino scored from the center of the box off an assist from Pedro to make it 2-1, which proved to be the final score. After the third goal, the match opened up with substitutions on both sides, including the introductions of Lucas Paqueta, Jorge Carrascal and Bruno Henrique for Flamengo, and although Cruzeiro pushed with Matheus Pereira, Joao Costa and Luciano Rodriguez, Flamengo's defense held firm until the final whistle, which came after six minutes of stoppage time.

The numbers behind the dominance

The statistics reflect Flamengo's superiority throughout the match, especially in attacking volume:

According to an in-house estimate based on shot location, Flamengo generated 2.226 expected goals compared to Cruzeiro's 0.832, a gap that backs up the home side's clear offensive dominance, with nine shots on target against just three for the visitors.

What the preview said versus what happened on the field

Before kickoff, the published projection gave Flamengo a 61% chance of winning, a 28% chance of a draw, and just 11% in favor of Cruzeiro, with expected goals of 1.5 for the home side and 0.5 for the visitors, for a total of 2. The final result ended up matching that forecast fairly closely: Flamengo won as the favorite, and the 2-1 scoreline landed close to those expected goals figures, though the path there wasn't as straightforward as the preview suggested, since Cruzeiro managed to briefly tie the match at the start of the second half before the home side put the game away.

What we learned

Flamengo walks away with a win that backs up the favoritism shown in the preview, powered by Pedro's effectiveness as a playmaker (he factored into the assists on both home goals) and by Arrascaeta and Samuel Lino coming through in the key moments. For Cruzeiro, Lucas Romero's goal showed the team had enough to trouble its rival, but it wasn't enough to hold the deadlock in a match where Flamengo ultimately proved clearly superior in both volume of play and attacking sharpness.