Flamengo hosts Cruzeiro at the Maracana as favorite to settle Copa Libertadores round of 16

The Maracana will host the second leg of the Copa Libertadores round of 16 between Flamengo and Cruzeiro, following a 1-1 draw in the first leg played in Belo Horizonte. That result leaves the tie wide open and forces the home side to settle things as host, in a matchup that also reignites a heavyweight Brazilian rivalry.

How the teams arrive

Flamengo has gone through the tournament practically unbeaten: in its tournament record the club has piled up 5 wins and 2 draws in 7 matches played, with no losses, 15 goals scored and only 3 allowed. Its attack averages 2.667 goals per game and its defense concedes just 0.333, with clean sheets in 67% of its outings. Over its last five matches (across all competitions in that sample) Flamengo posted two wins and three draws, with no defeats, confirming its solidity though with some recent trouble putting games away. Bruno Henrique leads the scoring charts with 4 goals, followed by Lucas Paqueta with 3 and Pedro with 2. The team's most productive scoring stretch comes late, between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Cruzeiro, for its part, has had a more modest run in the competition: 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in 7 matches played, with 9 goals scored and 4 allowed. Its offensive average sits at 0.667 goals per game, well below its rival's, though defensively it also shows solidity with 0.333 goals conceded per game and clean sheets in 67% of its matches. Over its last five matches in the recent sample it collected three wins and two draws, with no losses, a streak that gives it confidence heading into this clash. Matheus Pereira is its top scorer with 4 goals, and its best scoring window comes between the 46th and 60th minutes.

The head to head record

The recent head to head record clearly favors Flamengo: of 8 matches played, the home side won 4, there were 3 draws and Cruzeiro won just 1. In terms of goals, Flamengo has scored 10 and Cruzeiro 5, a gap that underscores Flamengo's historical edge in these direct meetings.

Possible lineups

As a probable lineup with medium reliability, Flamengo could field Agustin Rossi in goal, with Leo Pereira, Ayrton Lucas, Guillermo Varela and Emerson Royal in defense, Erick Pulgar, Samuel Lino, Jorginho, Jorge Carrascal and Gonzalo Plata in midfield, and Pedro as the attacking reference.

Cruzeiro, with an estimated lineup of low reliability, would line up with Otavio between the posts, Jonathan Jesus, Fabricio Bruno, Fagner, Lucas Villalba and Joao Marcelo across the back line, Keny Arroyo, Matheus Pereira, Lucas Romero and Gerson in midfield, and Kaio Jorge up front.

Match probabilities

The model gives Flamengo a clear edge with a 61% chance of winning, compared to 28% for a draw and just 11% for Cruzeiro. Expected goals, a proprietary estimate, point to 1.5 for the home side and 0.5 for the visitor, a total of 2 goals that suggests a controlled match rather than a rout. The trends back that reading: only a 33% chance of the match going over 2.5 total goals, but a 67% chance that both teams score, which would open a scoring path for Cruzeiro despite the gap in favoritism. It is worth noting these numbers are a proprietary estimate based on the season's trends, not a closed forecast or a betting line.

With the tie level after the 1-1 first leg, Flamengo has home field as its main argument to settle this round of 16 matchup in front of its fans, while Cruzeiro arrives emboldened by its recent run of results and with hopes of pulling off a surprise at the Maracana.