France storms back to thrash Belgium 4-1 with a ruthless final quarter hour

France was trailing on home soil, and with good reason to be nervous: a Belgian counterattack had torn through the home defense in the 34th minute. Dodi Lukebakio finished with his left foot into the top corner after a through ball from Romeo Lavia, and the Stade de France fell silent at 0-1. But what followed was a demolition in the final quarter hour: France ended up thrashing Belgium 4-1 in the UEFA Nations League, scoring four goals between the 76th and 90th minutes.

French dominance was total across the 90 minutes, even when the scoreboard didn't show it. Ousmane Dembele, Maghnes Akliouche and Esteban Lepaul all tried their luck early on without success, and Zinedine Zidane's side piled up chance after chance in the first half without beating Maarten Vandevoordt. Lukebakio's strike, born from a lethal counter finished off by Lavia's pass, was almost the only scare Belgium produced all match, and yet it was enough to send them into halftime in front.

The late surge

The substitutions sparked the explosion. Michael Olise, Rayan Cherki and Lucas da Cunha came on to freshen up an attack that already controlled the ball, and the equalizer arrived in the 76th minute: Desire Doue curled one in with his left foot from outside the box to make it 1-1, assisted by da Cunha. Four minutes later, in the 80th, Cherki finished with his left foot from the center of the box, set up by Olise, for 2-1. Then the game completely fell apart for Belgium: in the 87th minute, Olise finished at close range with his right foot by the post, assisted by Doue, for 3-1, and in the final minute of regulation, in the 90th, Olise himself completed his brace with a left-footed finish into the middle of the goal after a through ball from Doue, sealing the 4-1.

The numbers back up the gap that ultimately defined the result. France dominated possession and vastly outshot Belgium, with far more clear-cut chances:

The xG calculated after the fact from the match's shots also makes the home side's superiority clear: 2.32 for France against just 0.62 for Belgium, an in-house estimate that confirms the hosts generated far more danger than the first-half scoreline suggested.

The buildup had pointed to an even contest: our projection gave France a 37% chance of winning, Belgium 35%, and a draw 28%, with expected goals of 1.46 for the hosts and 1.42 for the visitors. What actually happened went in another direction entirely: the draw wasn't as close as expected, and the final blowout certainly wasn't in the script, especially with Belgium leading for much of the match.

In Group A1, France moves to 10 points from 4 matches played, with a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, sitting first ahead of Italy. Belgium stays on 6 points, with 2 wins and 2 losses, in third place, 4 points behind France in this head-to-head.

On the cards front, Romeo Lavia, Maxence Lacroix and Joaquin Seys were booked for dangerous play, but none of that stuck in the memory next to France's final avalanche. What this match leaves behind is the image of a team that, even while trailing and unable to find the net for more than an hour, never stopped creating danger until the substitutions gave it the fresh legs needed to overwhelm a Belgian side that, until the 76th minute, had defended its slim lead with discipline.