Gimnasia Mendoza Hosts Struggling Deportivo Riestra in Group A Showdown

Estadio Victor Antonio Legrotaglie hosts a direct battle for the top of the group: Gimnasia Mendoza, fourth in the Group A table, takes on Deportivo Riestra, sitting 12th but just 7 points back. In a table this tight, three points could shuffle several spots in one shot.

The home team arrives with confidence. In its league record this season, Gimnasia Mendoza has 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in 9 matches, with 14 goals scored and 9 allowed. Over its last five games it strung together three straight wins before a draw and a loss, a short run that keeps it among the contenders in the group. At home in Argentina's Primera Division this season (sample of 8 matches), Gimnasia Mendoza averages 1.12 goals scored and 1 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 25 percent of its matches and its most productive scoring window between the 31st and 45th minutes.

Deportivo Riestra is going through a grayer stretch. Its league record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in 9 matches, with just 8 goals scored and 10 allowed. The recent form confirms the offensive drought: four straight draws and a loss in its last five matches, without a single win in that span. On the road this season (sample of 8 matches), the team is averaging just 0.12 goals scored per game and allowing 1, with clean sheets in 25 percent of matches and its best scoring window between the 16th and 30th minutes.

What the History Says

The two sides have met 7 times, with a very even head to head in results but not in goals: Gimnasia Mendoza has won 1, there have been 6 draws and Deportivo Riestra has yet to win. In terms of goals, the home side has scored 4 and the visitors 2. The recent history between these two teams, in short, shows plenty of balance in the final result, though with a slight scoring edge for the home side.

Possible Lineups

With medium reliability, Gimnasia Mendoza's likely starting eleven would stick to its usual base: Cesar Rigamonti in goal, a back line of Matias Recalde, Ezequiel Munoz, Diego Mondino and Luciano Paredes, a midfield of Facundo Lencioni, Luciano Cingolani, Fermin Antonini, Esteban Fernandez and Tomas O'Connor, and Agustin Modica leading the attack, who is also the team's top scorer at home this season with 4 goals.

Deportivo Riestra, also with an estimated lineup of medium reliability, would line up with Ignacio Arce between the posts, a back five of Cristian Paz, Mariano Bracamonte, Facundo Mino, Ignacio Gariglio and Nicolas Sansotre, a midfield of Yonatan Goitia, Milton Celiz, Antony Alonso and Gabriel Obredor, and Nicolas Benegas as the lead forward.

Odds

The numbers are nearly even between a home win and a draw, with the visitors a notch below but not out of the picture. Our model, which calculates these percentages from the season's trends, also projects expected goals of 0.93 for Gimnasia Mendoza and 0.73 for Deportivo Riestra, a combined 1.66 that fits a low scoring affair: in fact, the chance of more than 2.5 goals sits at just 19 percent, and the chance of both teams scoring barely reaches 9 percent. It's worth noting this is our own estimate, not a sportsbook line.

With those numbers on the table, everything points to a tight, low scoring match, with Gimnasia Mendoza looking to make the most of home field advantage and its recent form, while Deportivo Riestra tries to snap a winless streak that has already stretched several matches.