Hoffenheim hosts a struggling Schalke 04 with history and the numbers on its side

The Bundesliga table doesn't lie: Hoffenheim sits 14th with 9 points while Schalke 04 anchors the bottom of the standings in 17th with 6. Neither side arrives brimming with confidence, but at the SNP Arena one of them is about to snap a rough stretch, and all signs point to the home team having the edge.

Christian Ilzer's Hoffenheim has racked up 3 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses so far this season, scoring 14 goals and conceding 16. Things have picked up over the last five matches, though: two wins, two draws and just one loss, a run that went win, win, draw, loss, draw. At home in this Bundesliga campaign, the club is averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game across a sample of 4 matches, with the stretch between the 76th and 90th minutes standing out as its most productive scoring window.

On the other side, Miron Muslic's Schalke 04 is going through a much tougher stretch. Their league record stands at 1 win, 3 draws and 4 losses, with just 4 goals scored and 9 conceded across 8 matches. Recent form only makes things worse: in their last five games they've picked up four losses and a draw, with no wins at all. On the road in this same Bundesliga season, they're averaging just 1 goal scored and 1.5 conceded per match across 4 outings, with the 16th to 30th minute window the stretch when they tend to concede the most.

The head-to-head record doesn't leave much room for an upset either: of the 8 meetings between these two sides, Hoffenheim has won 7, with no draws, and Schalke has taken just 1, with a combined scoreline of 23 goals for the home side against 9 for the visitors.

Probable lineups

Ilzer could stick with much of the side that has picked up points in recent weeks: Oliver Baumann in goal, a back line of Koki Machida, Mats Rots and Ozan Kabak, with Leon Avdullahu, Alexander Prass, Andrej Kramaric and Wouter Burger in midfield, and Tim Lemperle, Fisnik Asllani and Adam Hlozek up front. This is an estimated lineup based on recent matches, with low reliability, so it could change.

For Schalke, Muslic is expected to go with Loris Karius between the posts, a back line of Nikola Katic, Hasan Kuruçay, Timo Becker and Robin Gosens, a midfield featuring Satoshi Tanaka, Adil Aouchiche, Kenan Karaman, Soufiane El-Faouzi and Junior Adamu, and Hwang Hee-Chan as the attacking reference point. This is also a projection, not an official confirmation.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on this season's trends, makes Hoffenheim the clear favorite, though not an overwhelming one:

This is our own estimate, not a betting line, and it's worth reading with some nuance: a 57% favorite still leaves nearly a one in four chance for a draw, so this is far from a formality. The expected goals back up that reading: 1.90 for Hoffenheim against 0.99 for Schalke, for an estimated total of 2.89. On top of that, the probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match sits at 88%, while the chance of both teams scoring lands right at 50%.

With Hoffenheim looking to pull away from the lower half of the table and Schalke trying to halt a slide that's already weighing on the club, this match at the SNP Arena carries more urgency than the two teams' positions might suggest.