Last-place Juárez hosts Tijuana in a clash both sides expect to be high scoring

With just 3 points through ten matchdays and a goal difference of -18, Juárez comes into this game sitting dead last in Liga MX. Its opponent, Club Tijuana, isn't exactly flying high either, but it does sit comfortably in the middle of the table. The matchup at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez pits two very different realities against each other, though they're not quite as far apart as the standings suggest.

The border club led by Gustavo Lema carries a record that weighs heavy: 1 win, 0 draws and 9 losses this tournament, with 7 goals scored and 25 allowed. Over its last five matches it has won just once and lost four. Tijuana, under Sebastián Abreu, has posted 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the tournament, with 14 goals scored and 13 allowed, and sits eighth in the table, 11 points clear of its upcoming rival. Still, its recent form isn't inspiring much confidence either: of its last five matches, it won one, drew one and lost three.

A couple of context numbers are worth separating from overall tournament performance. Playing at home this same Liga MX season, Juárez averages 0.8 goals scored and 2 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 20% of matches, and tends to score most often between the 31st and 45th minutes; Óscar Estupiñán stands out there with 6 goals in that span. Tijuana, on the road this season, averages 1.32 goals scored and 2.34 allowed, with clean sheets in 33% of matches, and tends to find the net between minutes 16 and 30; Gilberto Mora leads that sample with 5 goals, followed by Mourad El Ghezouani with 3.

What the head-to-head says

The two sides have met 8 times, with Tijuana holding a clear edge: 4 wins to Juárez's 2, along with 2 draws, and a combined scoreline of 14 goals for the visitors to 10 for the home side.

Possible lineups

With medium confidence based on recent matches, Juárez could start Sebastián Jurado in goal; Jesús Murillo, Gilberto Sepúlveda, Francisco Nevárez and Javier Aquino across the back line; Rodrigo Dourado, Denzell García, Monchu and Jairo Torres in midfield; and Óscar Estupiñán alongside José Luis Rodríguez up top.

Tijuana, also in an estimated lineup, could line up with Antonio Rodríguez between the posts; Alejandro Gómez, Ramiro Árciga, Jackson Porozo and Alan Vega in defense; Iván Tona, Adonis Preciado, Gilberto Mora, Ignacio Rivero and Francisco González in midfield; and Mourad El Ghezouani leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model projects expected goals of 1.49 for Juárez and 1.65 for Tijuana, a combined 3.14 that points to a game with chances for both sides. The trends back that up: a 53% probability of more than 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.

The percentages are fairly tight, with a slight lean toward the visitors, but no outcome looks out of the question. It's worth clarifying that this is our own estimate based on season trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction.

Juárez needs points to try to climb out of the basement; Tijuana will look to stay close to the upper half of the table. With the head-to-head record favoring the border club and an offense that has also shown defensive cracks, the match promises plenty of movement on the scoreboard.