Unbeaten Lazio heads to Turin to face Juventus in key Serie A test

A six-game unbeaten streak is walking into a tough spot. Lazio arrives at the Allianz Stadium as the only team in Serie A without a loss, while Juventus, sitting seventh in the table, needs a win to close the gap on the top of the standings. Just 5 points separate the two sides in the standings, and the matchup has all the makings of a real test for Luciano Spalletti's men.

Juventus comes in with three wins, two draws and a loss so far this season (9 goals scored, 5 allowed), and over its last five matches picked up three wins, a draw and a loss, with a victory in the most recent outing. Lazio, meanwhile, boasts a season record of five wins and a draw with no defeats, with 11 goals scored and just 4 allowed, and arrives in good form after stringing together four wins and a draw in its last five matches. That difference in form explains why Gennaro Gattuso comes into Turin as the chaser, sitting second, while Juventus battles a notch below.

It's also worth looking at how each side performs by venue, even if it's a small sample of just three games: at home in Serie A this season, Juventus is averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.34 allowed per match, keeping a clean sheet in 67% of its games, with its most productive scoring window between the 76th and 90th minutes. Lazio, on the road, shows the exact same averages (1.66 scored, 0.34 allowed, 67% clean sheets), though its most productive stretch comes earlier, between the 46th and 60th minutes. These numbers point to two solid teams both at home and away, though they don't necessarily reflect what's actually happened over the course of the season.

What the history shows

The head-to-head between these two sides is fairly even: in 8 previous meetings, Juventus won 3, Lazio won another 3 and there were 2 draws, with a combined 10 goals for the home side and 8 for the visitors. A balanced history that offers no clear hints about what might happen today.

Probable lineups

With low reliability based on recent patterns, Juventus could take the field with Guglielmo Vicario in goal; a back four of Pierre Kalulu, Zeki Çelik, Jhon Lucumí and Bremer; Weston McKennie, Douglas Luiz and Nico González in midfield; and an attacking trio of Kerim Alajbegovic, Francisco Conceição and Randal Kolo Muani.

Lazio, with a medium-reliability estimate, would likely field Christos Mandas in goal; Oliver Provstgaard, Romano Floriani Mussolini, Nuno Tavares and Danilho Doekhi across the back; Kenneth Taylor, Davide Frattesi and Reda Belahyane in midfield; and up top, Mattia Zaccagni, Matteo Cancellieri and Tijjani Noslin.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Juventus the edge as the home side, but not an overwhelming one: the margin leaves Lazio with real odds of pulling off the upset.

Expected goals (xG), our own estimate based on this season's trends, also puts Juventus ahead: 1.48 compared to Lazio's 0.81, for a combined total of 2.29. However, the both-teams-to-score stat sits at 100%, while the over 2.5 goals mark drops to just 17%, suggesting an evenly matched game that's likely to be tight on the scoreboard, not a blowout in either direction.

With Juventus needing to reassert itself at home and Lazio determined to extend its unbeaten run, the match at the Allianz Stadium promises tension from start to finish, in the latest installment of Serie A.