LAFC and New York Red Bulls Meet at BMO Stadium Both Winless Lately, But the Home Side Is the Clear Favorite

Zero wins in their last five matches for either side: that's how Los Angeles Football Club and New York Red Bulls arrive at BMO Stadium for an MLS matchup that promises more goals than certainties. LAFC has two losses and three draws in that stretch, while the Red Bulls have piled up three losses and two draws. Neither club has won in a while, but that doesn't put them in the same spot in the Eastern Conference table.

Los Angeles Football Club sits third with a league record of 10 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in 24 matches, scoring 38 goals and allowing 24. New York Red Bulls, meanwhile, are tenth with 7 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in 23 matches, and a goal difference that hurts: 32 goals scored against 46 allowed. At home in MLS this season, over a sample of 12 matches, LAFC averages 1.92 goals scored and just 0.92 allowed per game, with a 58% clean sheet rate, and tends to do its damage between the 31st and 45th minutes. The Red Bulls, in their 11 road trips this campaign, average 1.275 goals scored against 2.091 allowed, with only a 9% clean sheet rate and a tendency to score early, within the first 15 minutes.

The head to head record between the two, across four matches, favors LAFC: two wins to one for New York and a draw, with 9 goals scored by the home side against 6 for the visitors.

Probable Lineups

LAFC would likely field a lineup with Hugo Lloris in goal, a back line of Yevhen Cheberko, Ryan Porteous, Nkosi Tafari and Aaron Long, a midfield of Mark Delgado, Ryan Hollingshead, Mathieu Choinière and Eddie Segura, and an attacking duo up top of Denis Bouanga and Son Heung-Min. Bouanga is LAFC's top scorer at home this season with 12 goals in that sample, followed by Son with 5.

New York Red Bulls would likely go with Ethan Horvath in goal, a defense of Julián Bazán, Justin Che, Matthew Dos Santos and Dylan Nealis, a midfield of Ronald Donkor, Adri Mehmeti and Emil Forsberg, and an attacking trio of Cade Cowell, Julian Hall and Jorge Ruvalcaba. Hall and Ruvalcaba lead the Red Bulls' road production with 9 and 7 goals respectively in that same away sample.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives a clear edge to LAFC, though it doesn't rule out surprises: the expected goals estimate is 2.12 for the home side against 0.93 for the visitors.

It's a wide gap, but not a sure thing: a 14% chance for the visitors isn't a number to dismiss, and the 22% draw probability leaves another real possibility on the table. This is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. Two other readings from the model add to the picture: a 61% probability that the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance that both teams score, in line with an LAFC side that attacks well at home and a New York Red Bulls team that struggles defensively on the road but also finds the net.

With those numbers on the table, BMO Stadium is shaping up for a match with goals on both sides, though LAFC arrives with the stronger case for taking home all three points.