Lazio and Milan meet at the Olimpico with spotless starts in Serie A

With a perfect record, Lazio arrive in third place boasting a flawless 3 in Serie A: three matches, three wins, just one goal conceded. Waiting for them is Milan, fifth in the table, with two wins and a draw and still unbeaten. The Stadio Olimpico hosts a matchup between two of the sides that started the season best, with just two points separating them in the standings.

The numbers tell the story of how both teams arrive: Lazio have scored 4 goals and conceded just 1 across their three matches, while Milan have racked up 5 goals for and 2 against. Looking at recent form (the last five matches, a different sample from the league table), Lazio strung together four wins and one loss, going win, loss, win, win, win. Milan, for their part, arrived on the back of three wins, a draw and a loss over that same stretch, closing out with a draw in their most recent match.

Looking at the overall Serie A standings, Roma and Inter share the lead with 9 points, the same tally Lazio hold in third place. Milan sit just two points back, level with Como and Juventus near the top. With only three matchdays played, the table doesn't yet say much about lasting pecking order, but it does confirm both clubs have made a solid start.

Some additional context is worth spelling out, since it doesn't come from this competition alone: across a sample of three home and away matches in the 2026 Serie A season, Lazio are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game, with clean sheets in 67% of those matches, and their most productive scoring window falling between minutes 16 and 30. Davide Frattesi stands as their top scorer in that sample, with 3 goals. Milan, in the same type of sample, are averaging 1.67 goals for and 0.67 against, with clean sheets in 33% of matches and their best scoring stretch coming between minutes 61 and 75; Alphadjo Cissé tops that list with 2 goals.

A head-to-head record that favors Milan

The two sides have met eight times, with the edge going to Milan: 4 wins, 3 for Lazio and 1 draw, with an aggregate score of 6 to 9 in the Rossoneri's favor.

Probable lineups

With low reliability, since this is an estimated lineup based on recent matches, Lazio could start with Christos Mandas in goal; a back line of Oliver Provstgaard, Danilho Doekhi, Adam Marusic and Nuno Tavares; Kenneth Taylor, Nicolò Rovella and Fisayo Dele-Bashiru in midfield; and Matteo Cancellieri, Mattia Zaccagni and Boulaye Dia up front.

Milan, also on a probable basis, would field Mike Maignan in goal; a defensive line of Strahinja Pavlovic, Koni De Winter and Mario Gila; Yunus Musah, Samuel Chukwueze, Pervis Estupiñán and Luka Modric in midfield; and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Gonçalo Ramos and Alphadjo Cissé in attack.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model has the match rated as very even, with a slight lean toward the visitors:

All three outcomes (home win, draw and away win) sit within just seven percentage points of each other, so there's no clear favorite. This is EnPelotas's own estimate based on the season's trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line. Total expected goals of 2.18, combined with the fact that both teams scored in 100% of the matches in the trend sample, point to a game with chances for both goalkeepers, though the probability of more than 2.5 goals sits at just 33%.

With Lazio looking to keep their perfect start alive at home and Milan trying to stay unbeaten away from the Stadio Olimpico, the match promises to pit two teams that still haven't tasted defeat in Serie A against each other.