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La LigaPublished 2 months ago 3 min read Español

Levante's Scoreless Drought Meets Real Betis' Iron Defense at the Ciutat de Valencia

Levante is desperately searching for its first goal of the season while Betis arrives unbeaten and unscored on, holding a 47% win probability according to predictive models.

Levante's Scoreless Drought Meets Real Betis' Iron Defense at the Ciutat de Valencia

Levante arrives at this match without having scored a single goal so far in LaLiga, and that already says a lot about what to expect at the Ciutat de Valencia. Standing across from them will be a Real Betis side that, quite the opposite, hasn't conceded a single one: two matches, two clean sheets and a perfect record. Rarely does a matchup between 17th place and 4th place make the imbalance so obvious.

The home side has picked up just 1 point through two matchdays, with a draw and a loss, and a goal difference of -3 that reflects an attack still stuck at zero (0 goals scored against 3 conceded). Over the last five matches, including those before the league season kicked off, Levante has strung together two wins, two losses and a draw, an uneven run that clashes with the solidity the team needs to show now. On top of that, its most productive scoring window comes right at the start of the match, between the 0 and 15 minute marks, so the opening stretch will be key if Levante hopes to spring a surprise.

Betis, meanwhile, arrives in Valencia as one of the hottest teams in the competition: four wins in its last five outings, two victories in the two league matchdays played so far, and a tally of 2 goals scored without conceding a single one. The team has scored in 100% of its matches, and its most productive stretch comes in the second half, between the 61st and 75th minutes. Rodrigo Riquelme and Pablo Garcia are, for now, the club's top scorers with one goal apiece. In the standings, the gap between the two sides sits at 5 points, though it's worth remembering that only two matchdays have been played and the table still says little about each squad's true level.

The head-to-head history doesn't favor Levante either: of the 8 matches played between the two clubs, Betis has won 5, Levante has won 2 and there's been one draw, with a combined goal tally of 21 to 15 in favor of the visitors.

Possible Lineups

For Levante, the projected lineup (low reliability, since this is based on recent matches) points to Mathew Ryan in goal, a back line with Adrian de la Fuente, Manu Sanchez, Jeremy Toljan and Matias Moreno, a midfield of Jon Ander Olasagasti, Pablo Martinez, Oriol Rey and Victor Garcia, and up front Ivan Romero alongside Carlos Espi.

Betis, for its part, could take the field with Alvaro Valles in goal, Hector Bellerin, Natan, Marc Bartra and Fran Garcia on defense, a midfield featuring Pablo Fornals, Antony, Facundo Bernal, Rodrigo Riquelme and Nelson Deossa, and Cucho Hernandez leading the attack. Again, this is a probable lineup, not a confirmed one.

What the Numbers Say

StatisticLevanteReal Betis
Win probability25%47%
Draw28%
Expected goals (estimated xG)1.151.63

Our model, which is based on season trends and shouldn't be read as a betting line, places Betis as the clear favorite with a 47% chance of winning, compared to 25% for Levante and 28% for a draw. Total expected goals sit around 2.78, split unevenly: 1.63 for the visitors versus 1.15 for the home side.

With Levante desperately searching for its first goal of the season and Betis yet to know defeat or a goal conceded, the match at the Ciutat de Valencia shapes up as a test of endurance for the home side and one more chance for the green and whites to confirm their perfect start.

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