Milan and Benfica Clash at the Meazza in a Battle of Unbeaten Streaks in the Europa League

Milan hosts Benfica at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in a matchup that promises everything but boredom: the numbers say it's even, but the recent form on both sides is worth framing. It's a Europa League clash, and both teams arrive rolling, though along different paths.

Milan, coached by Ruben Amorim, hasn't lost in quite a while: over their last five matches they've racked up three wins and two draws, no defeats. The pace has slowed a touch in the last two outings, but the foundation remains solid. In the 2023 Europa League season, playing at home, the team averaged 2.33 goals scored and just 1 conceded per match, keeping a clean sheet in 33% of those games, based on a sample of just three matches. In that same sample, the 31st-to-45th minute stretch was the most productive for the Rossoneri attack, with Ruben Loftus-Cheek (4 goals) and Christian Pulisic (2) as the top scorers.

Across the pitch is a Benfica side that's on fire: five wins in their last five matches, with no room for a draw or a loss. Marco Silva has his team rolling. That said, as a visitor in the 2023 Europa League, in a short sample of three matches, Benfica averaged just 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per match, with 67% of games ending in a clean sheet. A far more cautious profile away from home, with Rafa as the main offensive threat in that sample and the 61st-to-75th minute stretch as the most fertile scoring window.

The head-to-head history between the two is minimal: just one match, won by Benfica 1-0 as the away side. There isn't much more to draw from there, but it at least makes clear that the Portuguese club knows how to dig in on the road when the result is on the line.

Probable Lineups

For Milan, the projected lineup (with medium reliability) would have Mike Maignan in goal, a back four of Strahinja Pavlovic, Koni De Winter and Mario Gila, and a midfield featuring names like Luka Modric, Yunus Musah, Samuel Chukwueze and Pervis Estupiñan. Up top, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Goncalo Ramos and Alphadjo Cisse have been the most recurring pieces in recent matches.

Benfica, for their part, would keep Samuel Soares in goal, with Clement Lenglet, Samuel Dahl, Tomas Araujo and Alexander Bah across the back line. In midfield, expect Rafa, Gianluca Prestianni, Leandro Barreiro, Enzo Barrenechea and Heorhiy Sudakov, with Vangelis Pavlidis leading the line up top. All of this is a projection based on the most recent lineups, not an official confirmation.

What the Numbers Say

Our model sees the matchup as even, though with a slight lean toward the visitors:

Benfica's 44% isn't a runaway favorite: the draw (29%) and the home win (27%) combined add up to more than that. Expected goals also point to a tight match: 1.15 for Milan and 1.53 for Benfica, for an estimated total of 2.68. The probability of both teams scoring sits at 44%, while the chance of more than 2.5 total goals drops to 33%. It's worth remembering that these figures are our own estimate drawn from this season's trends, not a locked-in forecast or a betting line.

With a Milan side that hasn't tasted defeat in its recent run and a Benfica squad coming off five straight wins, the Meazza has all the ingredients for a back-and-forth night. The Europa League shows no mercy, and tonight neither side looks ready to give up ground easily.