Monza hosts an Atalanta side that has never lost to them, arriving as favorite despite its slump

The U-Power Stadium hosts a clash of crossed needs: Monza, second-to-last in Serie A, is looking for a lift at home, while Atalanta arrives with the urgency of putting a winless stretch behind it. The head-to-head record, meanwhile, hands all the favoritism to the visiting side before a ball is even kicked.

Ivan Juric's Monza is going through a tough spell: the club sits 18th with just 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses in 10 matches, with 17 goals scored and 24 conceded. The recent trend doesn't help either: over its last five games, the team has managed just one win against four losses. As the home side in this season's Serie A, though, Monza has averaged 2.25 goals scored and 2 conceded per match across a sample of four games, with clean sheets in 25% of them and its most productive stretch coming between minutes 31 and 45.

Atalanta, for its part, sits 13th with a record of 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the league, with 16 goals scored and 20 conceded. The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 4 points, something that isn't as evident in current form: over its last five matches, Maurizio Sarri's team hasn't won any, with three draws and two losses. On the road this season in Serie A, Atalanta has scored 1.25 goals per game and conceded 2.25, with no clean sheets in that sample, and tends to score most often between minutes 61 and 75.

A history that weighs heavily

If there's one number shaping the preview, it's this: across the 6 meetings on record between these two clubs, Atalanta has won all six, with a combined scoreline of 18 goals for against just 3 for Monza. It's a lopsided precedent that, added to both teams' current form, leaves the home side as clear underdogs on paper.

Likely lineups

With low confidence, according to the estimate itself, Monza could take the field with Noel Tornqvist in goal; a back line of Lorenzo Lucchesi, Eddy Kouadio, Saba Goglichidze and Andrea Carboni; Ricardo Mangas, Samuele Birindelli, Manga Foe Ondoa and Ebenezer Akinsanmiro in midfield; and Gustavo Varela alongside Jay Robinson up front. Varela, in fact, shows up as the team's top scorer in home numbers this season with 9 goals in that sample.

Atalanta, also with a low-confidence projected lineup, could field Marco Carnesecchi in goal; Relja Obric, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Davide Zappacosta and Thomas Kristensen in defense; Ederson, Charles De Ketelaere, Jonathan Rowe, Eljif Elmas and Mario Pasalic in midfield; and Nikola Krstovic as the attacking focal point, the same player who leads the team's scoring on the road with 6 goals in the sample mentioned above.

What the numbers say

Our model casts Atalanta as the favorite, though it doesn't rule out a different outcome:

The 53% favoring the Bergamo side is far from a foregone conclusion, especially considering the gap between the draw (25%) and the home win (22%) is razor thin. This is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. The expected goals back up that reading: 1.15 for Monza against 1.86 for Atalanta, an estimated total of 3.01 goals for the match. In line with that, the model puts the probability of more than 2.5 goals at 88% and the chance of both teams scoring at 75%.

Between a Monza side that needs points to climb out of the bottom of the table and an Atalanta team looking to snap its slump, the U-Power Stadium promises an open game, with the recent head-to-head history looming as a backdrop that's hard to ignore.