Monza vs Avellino in Coppa Italia: history warns the home favorite

The U-Power Stadium hosts a Coppa Italia clash between Monza and Avellino, two sides separated by division but with a recent history that calls for caution. The hosts arrive as clear favorites on paper, though their own past meetings show that Avellino knows how to hurt them in this fixture.

How the two teams arrive

Monza is going through an uneven stretch, but with more highs than lows: over its last five matches it has posted three wins, one draw and one loss, closing out that run with a victory. The data suggests this is a team that tends to strike early, with its highest offensive output coming between the 0 and 15 minute mark of the season.

Avellino, for its part, also arrives with more wins than losses in its recent sample: three wins and two losses in its last five outings, though its form has been more erratic, alternating good results with stumbles. Interestingly, it shares with Monza the same most productive scoring window, the opening 15 minutes of the match, which could point to an intense start from both sides.

The head to head record

The recent history between Monza and Avellino is short but telling: of the 3 matches played, Avellino took 2 wins against 1 for Monza, with no draws in between. In cumulative scoring, Avellino even edges the hosts 4 goals to 3. These are numbers that, despite the small sample, make clear the visiting side is no easy mark despite the gap in expectations for this matchup.

Possible lineups

For Monza, based on the most recent lineups, the likely XI (with medium reliability) would have Demba Thiam in goal, a back line with Samuele Birindelli, Filippo Delli Carri and Lorenzo Lucchesi, and a midfield featuring Matteo Pessina, Andrea Carboni, Paulo Azzi, Adam Bakoune and Andrea Colpani, with Patrick Cutrone and Dany Mota rounding out the attack.

Avellino, in a projected lineup with higher reliability, would line up with Antony Iannarilli between the posts, a defensive line of Tommaso Cancellotti, Armando Izzo, Patrick Enrici and Alessandro Fontanarosa, a midfield made up of Luca Palmiero, Dimitrios Sounas, Martin Palumbo and Michele Besaggio, and the strike duo of Raffaele Russo and Cosimo Patierno up top.

Match probabilities

According to EnPelotas' proprietary model, here are the estimated probabilities for the match outcome:

The model also projects expected goals of 1.83 for Monza and 0.83 for Avellino, for a projected total of 2.67 goals in the match. These figures, which are an in-house estimate and not a betting line, mark Monza as the clearest favorite among the three outcomes, though the visitors cannot be ruled out entirely, having shown in head to head meetings that they can make life uncomfortable for the hosts.

With Monza looking to assert its home advantage from the opening minutes and an Avellino side that has already gotten the better of its rival in the past, this Coppa Italia clash promises an open script despite the favorite tag on paper.