Napoli and Bologna Fight for Survival at the Maradona

The Diego Armando Maradona stadium hosts a clash between two teams desperate to right the ship. Napoli come in with just 3 points from three Serie A matchdays, while Bologna are even worse off, with only 1 point in the same span. Neither side can afford another slip if they hope to pull away from the bottom of the table.

Napoli's recent run has been a study in contrasts: they opened with two straight wins before dropping three in a row. In the league table, the Naples side sit at one win, no draws and two losses, with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded, leaving them in 12th place. Bologna, meanwhile, are still searching for their first win of the campaign: one draw and two losses, with just 2 goals scored and 4 allowed, numbers that place them 16th, just 2 points behind Napoli. Their recent form hasn't helped either, with two draws and three losses in their last five outings.

Looking at the 2026 Serie A season overall, home and away combined (a small sample of just three games, distinct from the head-to-head record above), Napoli are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match, with a 33% clean sheet rate and their most productive stretch coming between the 46th and 60th minutes. In that same sample, Rasmus Hojlund stands out as their top scorer with 2 goals. Bologna, in the equivalent sample, are averaging 0.67 goals scored per match and 1.33 conceded, with no clean sheets, and they too tend to find their best moments between the 46th and 60th minutes.

An Even Head-to-Head

The all-time series between these two clubs offers no clear favorite: across 8 previous meetings, Napoli have won 2, Bologna 3, with 3 draws, and each side has scored 10 goals. It's a history that mirrors the tight balance both teams currently show in the standings.

Possible Lineups

Napoli, based on the probable lineup drawn from their recent matches, could start with Alex Meret in goal, a back line of Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Rafa Marin and Mathias Olivera, Stanislav Lobotka and Scott McTominay in midfield, and Rasmus Hojlund, Matteo Politano and Alisson Santos up top. The reliability of this lineup is rated medium.

For Bologna, with reliability estimated as low, the likely lineup would feature Lukasz Skorupski in goal, Torbjorn Heggem, Eivind Helland, Juan Miranda and Emil Holm in defense, Lewis Ferguson, Federico Bernardeschi, Tommaso Pobega and Nicolo Cambiaghi in midfield, and Roberto Piccoli leading the attack.

What the Numbers Say

Our model gives Napoli a slight edge as the home side, though it doesn't rule out Bologna:

It's not a lopsided split: Napoli enter as favorites, but a draw remains a real possibility and an away win isn't out of the question. Our model's expected goals sit at 1.49 for Napoli and 0.91 for Bologna, a combined 2.40, in line with the 50% probability assigned to the match going over 2.5 goals. The chance of both teams scoring is set at 33%. All of this is our own estimate, not a betting line.

With both sides needing points, the match at the Maradona promises tension from the opening whistle. Napoli will look to snap their home skid, while Bologna aim to finally end their winless run in Serie A.