New England Revolution look to close in on top spots as New York City FC search for answers

Gillette Stadium hosts an MLS clash between New England Revolution and New York City FC in the Eastern Conference. The hosts sit fourth in the East and are looking to cut the gap to the top of the table, while the visitors, seventh, need to find a win after a rocky stretch of form.

How both teams arrive

New England Revolution have posted a record of 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in 20 matches this season, with 32 goals scored and 25 conceded. Over their last five games they've picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, an uneven run but one that has still yielded more points than their opponent's. The New England side averages 1.909 goals scored per game and just 0.909 conceded, with 36 percent of matches ending in a clean sheet, and they tend to look most dangerous late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Carles Gil, with 7 goals, is their top offensive threat, followed by Alhassan Yusuf with 5 and Dor Turgeman with 4.

New York City FC, meanwhile, have a record of 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their 20 matches, with 34 goals scored and 29 conceded. Their current form is more worrying: over the last five games they won just once and lost the other four. The New York side averages 1 goal scored per game and concedes 1.222, with only 11 percent of matches finishing with a clean sheet, a number that lays bare their defensive fragility. They tend to score early, between the 16th and 30th minutes. Nicolás Fernández Mercau is their standout scorer with 13 goals, well ahead of Hannes Wolf and Agustín Ojeda, both with 5.

In the Eastern Conference standings, New England sit fourth with 33 points from 20 matches played, while New York City FC are seventh with 26 points from the same number of games, a gap of 7 points between the two sides.

Head to head

Recent history tips slightly in the visitors' favor: of 8 meetings, New York City FC have won 4, New England have won 2 and there have been 2 draws, with a fairly even goal split overall (9 for the hosts and 10 for the visitors combined).

Probable lineups

As a probable, unconfirmed lineup, New England Revolution look set to field Matt Turner in goal, a back line of Matt Polster, Mamadou Fofana, Will Sands and Ethan Kohler, a midfield of Carles Gil, Brooklyn Raines and Alhassan Yusuf, and Peyton Miller and Dor Turgeman up top.

On the visiting side, with less certainty in the projection, New York City FC could go with Matt Freese in goal, James Sands, Tayvon Gray, Nico Cavallo and Max Murray across the back, and a crowded midfield featuring Andrés Perea, Bénie Traoré, Agustín Ojeda, Nicolás Fernández Mercau, Jonathan Shore and Keaton Parks.

Match probabilities

The numbers are nearly even: New England hold a slight edge at 37% compared to the visitors' 36%, with the draw not far behind at 27%. This is an in-house estimate based on the season's trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line. The model also projects expected goals of 1.48 for the hosts and 1.46 for the visitors, for an estimated total of 2.94, figures that support the over 2.5 goals trend (54%) and both teams to score (57%).

With the hosts sitting more comfortably in the standings but inconsistent in recent form, and the visitors in need of results after four losses in their last five matches, Gillette Stadium could be in for an open contest with goals at both ends.