New England Revolution hosts Orlando City with Eastern Conference third place on the line

New England Revolution hosts Orlando City SC at Gillette Stadium with the East's third spot up for grabs, and an odd stat looming over the game: in the eight previous meetings between these two clubs, Orlando won six and lost just once, that defeat coming against New England itself. Recent form, though, tells a different story about where each side stands right now.

The Revolution arrive with a record of 13 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in 25 matches this season, having scored 41 goals and allowed 31, numbers that hold them in third place in the East, nine points behind Orlando in the standings. Over their last five games they've picked up three wins, one draw and one loss, and they enter this match on the back of two straight victories. Marko Mitrovic leads a team that, at home in MLS 2026, averages 1.833 goals scored and 0.917 allowed across 12 matches in that setting, with a 33% clean sheet rate and a tendency to find the net between the 76th and 90th minutes. Carles Gil tops the scoring charts in that sample with 10 goals, followed by Dor Turgeman with 7 and Alhassan Yusuf with 5.

Orlando City SC, managed by Martín Perelman, carries a tighter record: 10 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in 25 matches, with 44 goals scored but 56 allowed, a minus 12 goal difference that leaves them sixth in the group. Over their last five games they won three, drew one and lost one, a run that stands in contrast to their numbers on the road in MLS 2026: 1.75 goals scored per game but 3.25 allowed in that setting, with just an 8% clean sheet rate across 12 matches, a sign that points toward an open game. Martín Ojeda leads that sample with 11 goals, Antoine Griezmann has 8 and Tyrese Spicer has 6.

The probable lineups

For the hosts, the expected XI has Matt Turner in goal, a back line of Matt Polster, Mamadou Fofana, Will Sands and Ethan Kohler, and up front Carles Gil, Brooklyn Raines, Alhassan Yusuf, Dor Turgeman, Peyton Miller and Jack Harrison, a lineup with high reliability based on recent matches. Orlando, with a medium-reliability projection, should field Maxime Crépeau in goal, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Zakaria Taifi and Bernardo Rhein on defense, Iván Angulo, Eduard Atuesta, Joran Gerbet, Justin Ellis and Griffin Dorsey in midfield, with Antoine Griezmann as the attacking focal point.

What the numbers say

Our model gives the home side a 45% chance of winning, a 24% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of a road win for Orlando. The numbers point to a modest edge for New England, but they don't shut the door on Orlando: the gap between the two outcomes isn't huge.

That forecast comes with a combined total of 3.66 expected goals, in line with the game's broader trends: a 71% probability of going over 2.5 goals and a 50% probability of both teams scoring. It's worth noting this is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction.

With New England looking to push further into the race for the top spots in the East and Orlando needing points to climb back toward the middle of the table, Gillette Stadium is set for a match in which neither side figures to play it safe.