New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire FC: a clash of contrasts in MLS with the visitors as favorites

Sports Illustrated Stadium hosts a clash of contrasts in MLS: New York Red Bulls, searching for stability after a rocky stretch, welcome a Chicago Fire FC side riding the best form of its season. The gap in the East standings between the two clubs stands at 10 points, and this game could confirm whether the visitors are cementing their place among the conference's best.

Current form

New York Red Bulls sit eighth in the East with a record of 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in 20 matches, 30 goals scored and 42 conceded, a negative differential of 12 that reflects the team's defensive struggles. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1.9 allowed per game, with just 10 percent of their matches finishing as clean sheets. Recent form hasn't helped either, with four losses and just one win in their last five outings. Julian Hall, with 9 goals, leads the attack, followed by Jorge Ruvalcaba with 7 and Emil Forsberg with 3.

Chicago Fire FC, by contrast, is enjoying a very different moment. The club sits third in the East with 11 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in 19 matches, 36 goals scored and 25 conceded, a plus 11 goal differential. Averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.56 allowed per game, along with clean sheets in 22 percent of matches, the numbers point to a side that's solid at both ends of the field. And the run of form is as good as it gets: five wins in their last five games. Philip Zinckernagel (5 goals) and Robin Lod (4) lead the scoring column.

Head to head

The history between these two clubs shows a notable balance. Across 8 previous meetings, Chicago Fire FC holds a slight edge with 3 wins to New York Red Bulls' 2, plus 3 draws, with 10 goals scored by each side. It's an even series that doesn't point to clear dominance by either team.

Possible lineups

For the home side, the likely starting eleven, with high reliability based on recent matches, would feature Ethan Horvath in goal; Justin Che, Dylan Nealis, Julian Bazan and Matthew Dos Santos across the back line; Emil Forsberg, Ronald Donkor and Adri Mehmeti in midfield; and Julian Hall, Cade Cowell and Jorge Ruvalcaba forming the attacking trio.

On the visiting side, with medium reliability in the projection, Chicago Fire FC could line up with Chris Brady between the posts; Jack Elliott, Andrew Gutman, Jonathan Dean and Joel Waterman in defense; Anton Saletros, Dje D'Avilla and Philip Zinckernagel in midfield; and Robert Lewandowski, Puso Dithejane and Jonathan Bamba up top.

Match probabilities

The model gives Chicago Fire FC the highest share at 43 percent, consistent with their winning streak and superior record this season, though it's far from an overwhelming favorite: the draw sits close behind at 25 percent, and a home win at 32 percent is far from negligible. This is an in house estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line. Expected goals also point to a tight contest with scoring chances for both sides, 1.58 for the home team and 1.84 for the visitors, a combined total near 3.42, in line with a 64 percent chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 53 percent probability that both teams find the net.

With Chicago Fire FC on a roll and New York Red Bulls in need of a response at home, this one promises intensity and goals at both ends.