Newell's downs Central Córdoba 2-1 behind goals from Gómez Mattar and Solari

Jerónimo Gómez Mattar found the top right corner in the 31st minute to light up the night at the Marcelo Bielsa. Newell's Old Boys went on to beat Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) 2-1 in Argentina's Primera División, with a second goal from Santiago Solari that looked to have sealed the match before a late Leonardo Sequeira strike made things uncomfortable in the closing stretch.

The home side dominated from the opening whistle, controlling possession and creating the better chances, though it took half an hour for that pressure to turn into a goal. Before the opener, Jerónimo Gómez Mattar had already given a warning with a low shot that went just wide, and Santiago Solari had tried his luck with a header that didn't find the target. The 1-0 finally arrived in the 31st minute: Gómez Mattar finished with his right foot from the center of the box, curling it into the corner, out of reach for the opposing keeper.

Central Córdoba had barely threatened up to that point, with a couple of long-range attempts from Diego Barrera and Lucas González that missed the target. Newell's kept pushing before halftime and nearly doubled the lead through Matías Cóccaro, but the first half ended 1-0.

The second half and a nervy finish

In the second half, Newell's stuck to the same script: more possession, more shots, more pressure on the visitors' goal. The decisive moment came in the 68th minute, when Santiago Solari tapped in a ball that left him one on one with the goal from close range, making it 2-0. With that cushion in hand, Frank Kudelka turned to his bench, bringing on Alan Soñora in place of Solari.

But Central Córdoba, which had already swapped out Diego Barrera and Michael Santos for Horacio Tijanovich and Lucas Varaldo, found an answer in the 79th minute: a cross from Tijanovich into the box met by a close-range header from Leonardo Sequeira, making it 2-1 and injecting some tension into the final minutes. Sebastián Dominguez's side pushed for the equalizer with another Sequeira effort that clipped the crossbar area, but Newell's held firm and closed out the match with a string of substitutions, including the introduction of Ignacio Ramírez and Lucas Gómez, to manage the result through stoppage time.

The numbers behind the dominance

The stats back up what was clear on the field: a Newell's side that was far superior in terms of overall control, though without an overwhelming gap in clear-cut chances.

According to our xG estimate based on the shots taken in the match, Newell's generated 2.214 expected goals compared to 0.487 for Central Córdoba, a gap that backs up the superiority it showed over the 90 minutes.

Before kickoff, we projected a much more even contest: 35% win probability for Newell's, 33% for a draw and 32% for Central Córdoba, with combined expected goals of 2.16 (1.12 for the home side and 1.04 for the visitors). What played out on the field was considerably more one sided than that forecast: Newell's didn't just win, it did so by generating nearly double the combined xG we had projected for the entire match.

What it means in the standings

In Group A, Newell's Old Boys moved up to 20 points and sits in the upper middle of the table, while Central Córdoba remains on 10 points, in the lower half of the standings. The gap between the two sides now stands at 10 points, something tonight's match only confirmed: a Newell's side that dictated terms for nearly the entire game and a Central Córdoba side that, despite Sequeira's late goal, couldn't rewrite a story that had been written from the very first goal.