Winless, scoreless Paderborn hosts a Hoffenheim side favored by history and form

Still winless in the Bundesliga so far this season, SC Paderborn 07 hosts TSG Hoffenheim at the Home Deluxe Arena in a clash between two sides still searching for their best form. Paderborn sits at the bottom of the table with just 1 point from a possible 9, while Hoffenheim, two spots and 2 points above them, can hardly boast a strong start either.

Paderborn's Bundesliga record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 3 matches played, with 0 goals scored and 4 conceded, making them the only team in the league yet to find the net. Over their last five matches (a sample that mixes competitions and shouldn't be confused with that league record), they put together two wins, one draw and two losses. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses in the league, with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded, and went two wins and three losses across their last five outings.

A few season trends are worth noting, though they shouldn't be lumped in with the figures above: across home and away matches in the 2026 Bundesliga, over a small sample of just 3 games, Paderborn has averaged zero goals scored per match and conceded 1.33, keeping a clean sheet in 33% of those games. Hoffenheim, over that same three-game sample, averages 2 goals scored and 2.33 conceded, without a single shutout, and their most productive scoring window falls between the 61st and 75th minutes. Adam Hlozek leads the way there with 2 goals, while Adam Daghim and Leon Avdullahu have 1 apiece.

A head-to-head record that clearly favors Hoffenheim

The history between these two clubs leaves little room for doubt: in 6 meetings, Paderborn has never won, there have been 3 draws and Hoffenheim has taken the other 3, with a lopsided 2 to 9 aggregate goal difference in favor of the visitors.

Possible lineups

With low confidence, Paderborn's likely starting eleven would have Nahuel Noll in goal, a back line of Mattes Hansen, Tjark Scheller and Jano ter Horst, and a crowded midfield featuring Laurin Curda, Santiago Castaneda, Raphael Obermair, Gabriel Vidovic and Laurin Ulrich, with Stefano Marino and Marvin Pieringer up top. For Hoffenheim, with medium confidence, the projected side has Oliver Baumann in net, a back four of Vladimir Coufal, Albian Hajdari, Ozan Kabak and Mats Rots, and an attacking group of Leon Avdullahu, Adam Hlozek, Wouter Burger, Patrick Wimmer and Adam Daghim playing behind Tim Lemperle.

What the numbers say

Our model, built on this season's trends, points to a tight matchup with a slight lean toward the visitors:

Hoffenheim's 43% is far from an overwhelming edge, and Paderborn's 32% as the home side keeps this one wide open. Expected goals also point to a close contest offensively: 1.51 for the hosts and 1.79 for the visitors, an estimated total of 3.30. That lines up with 67% of our projections calling for more than 2.5 goals in the match, though the odds of both teams scoring sit at just 0%, a notable figure given that Paderborn has yet to score a single goal in the Bundesliga this season. This is our own model's estimate, not a betting line.

With Paderborn desperate for its first win and eager to end its scoring drought, and Hoffenheim looking to pull away from the bottom of the table, the match at the Home Deluxe Arena promises tension from the opening whistle.