Parma and Monza, two teams starving for points, meet at the Tardini with nothing to lose

Neither Parma nor Monza have picked up a single point so far this Serie A season, and this Saturday at the Ennio Tardini, one of them will finally have to break that streak of zeros. The hosts arrive with 0 goals scored and 3 conceded through two matches, while the visitors have scored 3 but shipped 7. Rarely does a matchup between 17th and 18th place explain so clearly why both teams are stuck there.

Parma lost both of its Serie A matches without scoring, though its recent form over the last five games (a sample that mixes in other competitions) shows two wins before three straight losses. Monza, meanwhile, comes in with three wins in that same five-game stretch, even though its Serie A campaign also opened with two defeats. These are two different snapshots: one is the tournament they're playing right now, without a single point, and the other is the club's broader form across recent matches.

It's worth not blending those numbers with another sample: season-long trends. In Serie A 2026, both home and away, Parma is averaging 0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, without a single clean sheet, and its most frequent scoring window falls between the 0th and 15th minute. Monza, in that same two-game sample, is scoring 1.5 goals per match but conceding 3.5, also without a clean sheet, and tends to find the net between the 16th and 30th minute. Standing out there are Gustavo Varela, with two goals, and Andrea Colpani, with one. This is context, not the tournament record itself, but it helps explain why both defenses are banged up.

In the standings, the point gap between the two sides is zero: both are bottomed out with no points, though Parma holds a goal difference of minus 3 and Monza of minus 4. Head-to-head history, though, favors the hosts: of the last four meetings, Parma won one, three ended in draws, and Monza hasn't won any, with a combined tally of 4 goals for Parma against 3 for Monza.

Probable lineups

With low confidence, since this is an estimate drawn from recent matches, Parma could take the field with Edoardo Corvi in goal and a back four of Mariano Troilo, Sascha Britschgi, Emanuele Valeri and Enrico Delprato, plus Lautaro Valenti. In midfield, expect Christian Ordonez (a starter in the last six matches), Mandela Keita, Abdou-Salam Konate and Adrian Bernabe, with Simone Lontani leading the attack.

Monza, also with a low-confidence projected lineup, could go with Demba Thiam in goal, Eddy Kouadio, Andrea Carboni and Lorenzo Lucchesi across the back, and a midfield of Samuele Birindelli, Ricardo Mangas, Mathis Mout, Adam Bakoune and Manga Foe Ondoa. Up top, the estimated pairing would be Patrick Cutrone and Dany Mota.

What the numbers say

Our model projects an even matchup, with a slight edge for the home side:

With 36% for Parma, 33% for a draw and 31% for Monza, all three outcomes sit at practically the same level: there's no clear favorite. The expected goals figures, 1.1 for the hosts and 1.0 for the visitors, point to a game short on clear-cut chances, which fits two attacks that have barely scored all tournament. It's worth noting this is our own estimate built from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive prediction.

With both sides desperate for their first taste of joy in Serie A, the Tardini hosts a direct showdown between the only two teams yet to pick up a point. Whoever breaks the drought first will breathe easier; whoever doesn't will be left staring up from the bottom of the table.