Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami: relegation fight meets crisis atop the East

Subaru Park hosts a clash of contrasts in MLS: Philadelphia Union, stuck in the lower half of the Eastern Conference, welcome an Inter Miami CF side battling near the top of the table. With Lionel Messi as the visiting team's headline act, the match has all the makings of an entertaining one, though the standings weigh far more heavily on the home side's mind.

How the two teams arrive

Philadelphia Union sit in 13th place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 19 games played, 5 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses, scoring 28 goals and conceding 35. Their scoring average is 1.119 goals per game while they concede 0.992 on average, keeping a clean sheet in just 33% of their matches. Over their last five games they have picked up three wins and two losses, an uneven run but one with signs of life, the most recent result being a victory. Milan Iloski is their top scorer with 10 goals, followed by Danley Jean Jacques and Bruno Damiani with 3 apiece.

Inter Miami CF, on the other hand, sit second in the East, 19 points behind Philadelphia in terms of the gap reflected in the standings. Their record this season is 11 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in 19 matches, with a much more potent attack: 46 goals scored and 36 conceded, for an average of 2.28 goals scored and 1.727 allowed per game. Their recent form is a concern, though: of their last five matches they won only one, drew one and lost the other three, closing out that stretch with three straight defeats. Lionel Messi tops the team's scoring chart with 12 goals, followed by Luis Suárez (10) and Germán Berterame (7).

Head-to-head history

The recent head-to-head record clearly favors the Florida club: of 8 matches played, Inter Miami won 6, Philadelphia won just 1 and there was 1 draw. The goal difference is lopsided too, 23 scored by Inter Miami compared to 15 by the Union across that span.

Probable lineups

In a probable, unconfirmed lineup, Philadelphia Union could go with Andre Blake in goal, Nathan Harriel, Kai Wagner, Neil Pierre and Frankie Westfield across the back line, Danley Jean Jacques, Cavan Sullivan, Indiana Vassilev and Jovan Lukic in midfield, and Milan Iloski paired with Bruno Damiani up top.

On Inter Miami's side, with medium confidence in the projection, the probable XI would have Rocco Ríos Novo between the posts, Ian Fray, Micael, Facundo Mura and Noah Allen across the back line, Yannick Bright, Casemiro, Rodrigo De Paul and Telasco Segovia in midfield, and Dániel Pintér alongside Luis Suárez up front.

Match probabilities

According to this in-house estimate based on the season's trends (not a betting line), Inter Miami CF is favored at 41%, but the gap with the home side's 32% and the 27% chance of a draw isn't huge: this matchup is closer than the standings would suggest. The model also projects expected goals of 1.42 for Philadelphia and 1.64 for Inter Miami, a combined total of 3.06 expected goals, in line with trends pointing to a 59% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams score.

With an Inter Miami side needing to turn around its recent slump and a Philadelphia team looking to use home field to close the gap in the standings, this Subaru Park duel figures to be wide open from the opening whistle.