Racing de Santander and Elche both chase first win of the season at El Sardinero in a wide-open duel

Two teams still searching for their first win in LaLiga meet at El Sardinero. Racing de Santander has a draw and a loss through its first two matchdays, and Elche also has a draw and a loss, though with a far more painful goal difference. Neither side has found a victory yet, so whichever gets there first will breathe easier.

The home side sits thirteenth with just 1 point from 2 games played, having scored one goal and conceded three in the league so far. Its attack is averaging 1 goal per game and allowing 1.5, and it has yet to keep a clean sheet in any match. Looking only at the short sample of the last five games (which includes competitions or dates before this league start), Racing has put together two wins, two draws and a loss, a stretch a bit more encouraging than what the table currently shows. Andres Martin and Sergio Martinez are its top scorers so far, with one goal each, and the 16th to 30th minute window is where the team tends to find its goals.

Elche, meanwhile, is in a more uncomfortable spot: eighteenth, also with 1 point from 2 games, but with a record of 1 goal scored and 6 conceded, the worst goal difference in the entire standings. It's scoring half a goal per game and conceding 3, numbers that carry weight. Over its short sample of the last five games it has one win, two draws and two losses. Marc Aguado is its only recognized scorer so far, and interestingly the team tends to show up more on the scoresheet late, between the 76th and 90th minute.

The head-to-head record doesn't favor Racing either: in 8 matches, Elche has won 4 to Racing's 2, with 2 draws, and a goal tally of 7 to 10 in the visitors' favor.

Probable lineups

Racing, with low reliability in our estimate based on recent matches, could start with Julen Agirrezabala in goal and a back line of Alvaro Mantilla, Jorge Salinas, Pablo Ramon and Manu Hernando. In midfield, look for Andres Martin, Inigo Vicente, Gustavo Puerta, Peio Canales and Maguette Gueye, with Asier Villalibre up front.

Elche, with medium reliability in its projected lineup, points to Matias Dituro in goal, a back line of German Valera, David Affengruber, Victor Chust, Buba Sangare and Pedro Bigas, and a midfield of Marc Aguado, Gonzalo Villar, Tete Morente and Aleix Febas, with Alvaro Rodriguez leading the line.

What the numbers say

Our model, based on the season's trends, points to an even match with no clear favorite.

The 38% figure for Racing and 37% for Elche are essentially tied, with the draw at 25% rounding out a split with no clear favorite. Expected goals, another of our own estimates, tell a similar story: 1.68 for the home side and 1.66 for the visitors, a combined total of 3.33 that points to a game with scoring chances for both sides. It's worth noting this is an in-house calculation, not a betting house's odds.

With both teams in need of their first bit of joy this season, El Sardinero could become the stage where one of them finally breaks its drought. The points gap between them in the standings is zero, so what happens this Sunday could shape the course of the coming weeks for either club.