Real Madrid edges past Villarreal thanks to Yan Diomande goal as Vinicius sees red

A goal from Yan Diomande in the 62nd minute, confirmed after a VAR review, was enough for Real Madrid to take the match 1-0 over Villarreal at the Santiago Bernabeu. It was a hard-earned win that included a disallowed goal for Vinicius Junior and his later ejection for fighting, which ended up complicating things for the home side down the stretch.

Territorial control did not clearly belong to Real Madrid: Villarreal had more of the ball (53.7% possession) and produced more shots, but struggled to truly test Thibaut Courtois. Jose Mourinho's side, with less possession, was sharper in the box when it mattered most.

How the match unfolded

The first half ended scoreless despite chances on both ends. Kylian Mbappe gave an early warning in the 6th minute, rattling the left post with a shot off an assist from Alvaro Carreras, and tried again in the 20th with a shot that was saved. Ibrahima Konate also had a chance in the 39th minute, heading just over the crossbar off a corner kick. For Villarreal, Renato Veiga and Alberto Moleiro threatened without success before halftime.

The second half opened with changes on both sides (Marc Cucurella and Vinicius Junior came on for Real Madrid) and the game opened up a bit more. Villarreal put together a string of chances between the 59th and 60th minutes through Ilias Akhomach and Pape Gueye, which Courtois and the defense handled. But the decisive play came in the 62nd minute: a cross from Federico Valverde and a finish from Yan Diomande with his right foot, from the center of the box, low and inside the left post. The goal stood after a VAR check.

The match could have been settled before the end, but in the 70th minute VAR ruled out a goal from Vinicius Junior. A minute later, the Brazilian saw a red card for fighting, leaving Real Madrid with ten men to manage the lead for nearly twenty minutes, including seven minutes of stoppage time in which Villarreal searched for the equalizer without finding it. Georges Mikautadze and Carlos Romero had the clearest chances for the visitors in those closing stages, but Courtois came up with the answers.

By the numbers

According to our post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken in the game, Real Madrid generated 1.395 expected goals against Villarreal's 0.583, a gap that backs up the final result even though the visitors had more total attempts.

Before kickoff, our model had projected a 64% chance of a Real Madrid win, a 20% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of a Villarreal win, with expected goals of 2.49 for the home side and 1.24 for the visitors. The final score, a tight 1-0, fell short of that forecast of a more open scoreline, though it confirmed Real Madrid's overall status as favorites.

In the LaLiga table, Real Madrid stays in third place with 18 points from 8 matches played (six wins and two losses), 10 points clear of Villarreal, who sit tenth with 8 points from 8 appearances (two wins, two draws and four losses). Saturday's win does not change the picture at the top, but it adds three more points for a team still chasing Barcelona and Atletico Madrid.

What the match leaves behind, beyond the result, is Vinicius Junior's red card, which Real Madrid will have to manage ahead of upcoming matches, and a performance in which Villarreal held its own with the ball but could not turn it into a goal.