Riestra and Unión Santa Fe clash at the bottom of the table with relegation looming

With relegation breathing down their necks, Deportivo Riestra and Unión Santa Fe meet at the Guillermo Laza in a direct showdown at the bottom of Argentina's Primera División. Just 2 points separate the two sides in the standings, and both arrive desperate to snap out of a rough patch.

The home side, coached by Guillermo Duró, sits in 12th place with 11 points from 12 games played, the product of 2 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses, with 9 goals scored and 12 allowed. Over their last five matches they haven't won a single one, piling up three draws and two defeats. Unión Santa Fe, under Leonardo Madelón, sit just one spot higher in 11th place with 13 points from 12 outings (4 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses, 17 goals scored and 21 allowed). Their recent form is even more worrying: in their last five matches they won just one and lost the other four.

The head-to-head record doesn't favor Riestra either: in the 4 matches the two sides have played, the home team has never won (2 draws and 2 wins for Unión, nicknamed Tatengue), with Riestra scoring 0 goals combined against Unión's 4.

What the season's trends suggest

Beyond the overall tournament numbers, there are some figures worth examining carefully, without conflating them with the league table. Playing at home in this same competition during the 2026 season, Riestra has averaged 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 allowed per match across 8 games, keeping a clean sheet in 50% of them, with their most productive scoring window falling between the 31st and 45th minutes. Antony Alonso stands out as their top scorer in that sample, with 2 goals.

Unión Santa Fe, on the other hand, playing on the road over that same 8-game sample, average 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 allowed per match, without a single clean sheet (0%), and they tend to score earlier, between minutes 0 and 15. Cristian Tarragona leads that tally with 7 goals, followed by Marcelo Estigarribia with 4.

Possible lineups

For Riestra, the likely starting eleven (rated low reliability based on recent lineups) would include Ignacio Arce in goal; Cristian Paz, Mariano Bracamonte, Nicolás Sansotre and Pedro Ramírez across the back line; Milton Céliz, Pablo Monje, Yonatan Goitía and Braian Sánchez in midfield; and Alexander Díaz alongside Antony Alonso up top.

Unión Santa Fe, with a medium-reliability projection, would line up with Matías Mansilla between the posts; Lucas Ayala, Juan Pablo Ludueña, Juan Pintado and Matías Rocha across the defense; Brahian Cuello, Ignacio Malcorra, Emilio Giaccone and Lucas Menossi in midfield; and the attacking pair of Cristian Tarragona and Marcelo Estigarribia.

Match probabilities

According to our model, the match is very evenly balanced, with a slight lean toward the draw:

The expected goals numbers also point to a tight contest: 0.90 for Riestra and 0.93 for Unión, for an estimated total of 1.83. On top of that, the probability of the match going over 2.5 goals sits at 38%, while the chance of both teams scoring is 28%. All of these figures are our own projections, not betting odds.

With both sides needing points to pull away from the bottom of the table, the Guillermo Laza will host a match where the result may matter more than the performance. Recent history favors Unión, but the current form of both clubs leaves no room to take anything for granted.