San Lorenzo and Riestra go all in at the bottom of the table

It's a duel between two teams in need at the Nuevo Gasometro. San Lorenzo and Deportivo Riestra arrive tied on 11 points, stuck near the bottom of the table, and neither side can afford to give up any more ground in the Argentina Primera Division. There's no room to play it safe here: this one will be fought with the urgency of a team looking over its shoulder rather than up the standings.

The hosts aren't in their best form. So far this tournament they've posted 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, with just 4 goals scored against 11 allowed, a goal difference of minus 7 that leaves them in 12th place. Their last five matches haven't gone much better: one win, one draw and three losses. As the home side this 2026 season, San Lorenzo is averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.38 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 50% of matches, and tends to find the net more often between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Riestra isn't exactly flush with form either, though its recent run has a different flavor. Its record in the tournament stands at 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses, with 9 goals scored and 11 allowed, just a notch above San Lorenzo in the standings. What stands out is the streak: in the last five matches, Riestra has drawn four times and lost just once, without a single win. On the road this season, the attacking numbers are weak: 0.12 goals scored per game and 1 allowed, with clean sheets in just 25% of away matches, though the team tends to strike early, between the 16th and 30th minutes.

What the history says

The two sides have met 8 times, with 2 wins for San Lorenzo, 5 draws and 1 win for Riestra, and a fairly even goal split (5 for the home side against 4 for the visitors). The draw clearly dominates the head to head record, which lines up with what Riestra has been showing in its recent outings.

Possible lineups

For San Lorenzo, the projected XI (medium confidence) would have Jose Devecchi in goal, a back four of Danilo Arboleda, Emiliano Amor, Ezequiel Herrera and Guzman Corujo, a midfield of Nicolas Tripichio, Ignacio Perruzzi and Teo Rodriguez Pagano, and a front line of Rodrigo Auzmendi, Alexis Cuello and Facundo Farias. Cuello and Auzmendi are, in fact, the team's top scorers at home this season, with 4 and 3 goals respectively.

On the visitors' side, Riestra will likely field Ignacio Arce between the posts, a back line of Cristian Paz, Mariano Bracamonte, Nicolas Sansotre and Facundo Mino, a midfield of Milton Celiz, Yonatan Goitia, Braian Sanchez and Pablo Monje, and an attacking duo of Antony Alonso and Alexander Diaz. Alonso leads the team's scoring chart on the road with 2 goals.

The odds

Our model doesn't see a clear favorite. In fact, the draw carries the most weight:

This is our own estimate, not a betting line, and the expected goals numbers back up that reading: 0.71 for San Lorenzo and 0.53 for Riestra, a combined total of just 1.24, which explains why the probability of more than 2.5 goals sits at only 19% and the chance of both teams scoring drops to 11%.

With that in mind, everything points to a tight, low chance affair where a single detail could tip the balance. San Lorenzo needs to snap its losing skid in front of its own fans; Riestra needs to finally turn one of those draws into a win. The Nuevo Gasometro is set for a direct bottom table clash that carries more weight than it might seem.