Senegal, with Mané, Jackson and Sarr, heads into friendly against Comoros as the clear favorite

The CEPAC Vélodrome hosts a clash of contrasts: Comoros, coming off an uneven close to the year, takes on a Senegal side arriving with Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson and Ismaïla Sarr among its likely starters. It's an international friendly, but the quality of Senegal's roster gives the matchup a special appeal.

Comoros has shown mixed recent form: in its last five matches it picked up two draws, two losses and one win, with that victory being the most recent result in the run. It's a small sample that doesn't reflect a settled level of performance, but it does point to a string of tight results heading into this game. The fact that in its only recent outing within the 2025 friendlies sample (home and away combined) it failed to score and conceded one, with zero clean sheets, paints a picture of a team that needs to rediscover its scoring touch, though that figure shouldn't be conflated with the last-five-games record.

Senegal, meanwhile, arrives with recent form more uneven than its roster might suggest: two wins, one draw and two losses in its last five matches, closing out the run with a victory. What does back up the favorite tag is the sample of eight friendlies in 2025 (home and away), in which it averages 2.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game, with a 38% clean sheet rate and its most productive stretch coming between the 31st and 45th minutes. In that same sample, Nicolas Jackson leads the scoring chart with three goals, followed by Ibrahim Mbaye with two.

The probable lineups

For Comoros, the projected XI, flagged as low reliability based on the sample itself, would again feature Yannick Pandor in goal, with a back line made up of Yannis Kari, Bendjaloud Youssouf, Akim Abdallah and Kenan Toibibou, joined in midfield by names like Zaydou Youssouf and Kassim Hadji, with Rafiki Saïd as the main attacking reference.

Senegal, also with a probable lineup flagged as low reliability, would field Yéhvann Diouf in goal, Moussa Niakhaté and Krépin Diatta in defense, a midfield of Pape Gueye, Lamine Camara and Idrissa Gueye, and a heavyweight attacking trio of Nicolas Jackson, Ismaïla Sarr and Sadio Mané.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Senegal a clear edge, though it doesn't rule out a surprise:

The expected goals we project also tilt the scales: 0.70 for Comoros versus 2.17 for Senegal, with an estimated total of 2.88 goals in the match. This is our own projection based on season trends, not a fixed forecast or a betting line, but the message is clear: Senegal goes in as the heavy favorite on paper.

With that contrast in squads and current form, the match at the CEPAC Vélodrome shapes up as a solid test of how far Comoros can push against a higher-ranked opponent, and a chance for Senegal to confirm whether its recent offensive firepower holds up on the road as well.