Sporting Kansas City hosts St. Louis City SC in MLS clash of contrasts

Children's Mercy Park hosts a matchup with stark contrasts in the MLS Western Conference standings: Sporting Kansas City, sitting at the bottom of the conference, tries to halt a freefall against St. Louis City SC, a rival riding a hot streak with ambitions of climbing the table. The gap between the two sides in the standings is 15 points, a clear reflection of two completely opposite seasons.

How the two teams arrive

Sporting Kansas City sits in 15th place with a record of 4 wins, 2 draws and 13 losses in 19 matches played this season, with 18 goals scored and 48 conceded, the worst goal differential in the entire conference. Its recent form offers little reason for optimism either: just one win against four losses over the last five matches. Offensively the club averages 1.224 goals per game and concedes 1.879, without a single clean sheet all season. Dejan Joveljic is the clear focal point up top with 8 goals, well ahead of Manu Garcia and Capita, both with 2. St. Louis City SC, by contrast, sits sixth with 8 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in 19 matches, 27 goals scored and 25 conceded. Its recent form has been notable: four wins and a draw in the last five matches, with no losses in that span. The club averages 1.102 goals per game and concedes 1.501, with a clean sheet in 10% of its matches. Simon Becher leads the attack with 4 goals, followed by Jeong Sang-Bin and Daniel Edelman, both with 2.

The head-to-head record

In the previous meetings between the two clubs, 8 in total, Sporting Kansas City holds the edge with 3 wins to 2 for St. Louis City SC, along with 3 draws. In terms of goals, the home side has scored 17 and the visitors 14, an even history that contrasts with the current gap between the two teams in the standings.

Probable lineups

Based on recent matches, Sporting Kansas City could field Stefan Cleveland in goal, with Or Blorian, Jake Davis, Emir Karic and Wyatt Meyer across the back line, Zorhan Bassong, Capita, Lasse Berg Johnsen and Manu Garcia in midfield, and Calvin Harris alongside Dejan Joveljic leading the attack. For St. Louis City SC, the probable starting eleven would feature Roman Burki in goal, Timo Baumgartl, Dante Polvara and Lukas MacNaughton in defense, Tomas Totland, Daniel Edelman, Chris Durkin and Conrad Wallem in midfield, and Simon Becher, Eduard Lowen and Jeong Sang-Bin up front. In both cases these are projected lineups, not official confirmations.

Match probabilities

The numbers make St. Louis City SC a slight favorite at 39%, but the gap with the home side's 33% is not enormous, and the draw still carries significant weight at 28%. This looks like a more even matchup than the standings suggest. According to our own expected goals estimate, Sporting Kansas City would land around 1.36 goals and St. Louis City SC around 1.49, for an estimated total of 2.85. These figures are our own projection drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line. Additional trends point to a 48% chance of more than 2.5 goals and a 54% chance that both teams score.

With Sporting Kansas City in urgent need of results to halt its slide down the table and St. Louis City SC looking to extend its strong run of form, Children's Mercy Park will be the stage for a clash where the home side's urgency could collide with the visitor's recent solidity.