Talleres blows a 2-0 lead against Rosario Central in a draw that favored the visitors

Talleres de Cordoba had the game all but wrapped up early in the second half, two goals up with Rosario Central on the ropes at the Mario Alberto Kempes. But the Cordoba side ended up conceding a 2-2 draw that, given the shot count and possession numbers, could even be considered generous to the home team.

The first goal came from the penalty spot: in the 20th minute, after a foul by Alan Rodriguez on Valentin Depietri inside the box, Agustin Alvarez made no mistake, converting with a low shot down the middle. Right at the start of the second half, Talleres struck again: in the 46th minute, Valentin Depietri, set up by Timoteo Chamorro, finished from close range to make it 2-0.

That's when the story changed. Four minutes later, VAR reviewed a play inside the Talleres box and awarded a penalty to Rosario Central for a foul by Santiago Fernandez on Ignacio Ovando. Angel Di Maria made no mistake from twelve yards in the 54th minute to pull one back. And with half an hour left to play, Di Maria himself, this time with a left-footed strike from the center of the box off a cross from Franco Ibarra, scored his second goal of the afternoon to make it a final 2-2 in the 62nd minute.

Dominance that came too late to matter, then mattered a lot

The final result ends up looking fair when you take in the full picture of the match, even if it did not seem that way from how it started. Rosario Central controlled the ball for long stretches and were far superior in attacking volume, finishing with 25 shots to just 6 for Talleres, and 11 of those shots on target compared to only 3 for the home side.

The expected goals figures calculated from the match's shots reflect that gap exactly: Rosario Central generated an xG of 4.135 against just 1.707 for Talleres. This is our own estimate made after the final whistle, not a pregame projection, but it captures what the game on the field made clear: the home side scored twice on very little, and the visitors deserved considerably more than a draw.

In fact, the preview we published before the match did not anticipate this script. Our projection gave Rosario Central a 39% chance of winning, 37% for a draw, and only 24% for a Talleres victory, with total expected goals of 1.74. The match ended up landing on the most likely outcome from that breakdown, the draw, though the path to get there, with Talleres up 2-0 at the 46th minute, was not the one the model would have drawn up.

What the point leaves behind

For Talleres de Cordoba, the draw tastes like little after having the match under control with a two-goal cushion that seemed to have it on track for a win. The Cordoba club sits on 4 points from 6 matches played in its group, the product of one win, one draw and four losses, with a goal difference of minus 4. For Rosario Central, on the other hand, the comeback from 0-2 down and the brace from Angel Di Maria leave the feeling of a point gained rather than two dropped, especially given the dominance the visitors imposed for long stretches of the second half in the Argentina Primera Division.