Toluca, third and unbeaten at home, host bottom-placed Juárez, still winless in Liga MX

Ten points separate these two clubs in the standings, and the season's numbers paint an even bigger gap: while Toluca have lost just one match, Juárez haven't won a single one. Estadio Nemesio Díez hosts this Liga MX clash between a home side fighting near the top and a visitor arriving as the outright bottom feeder.

Toluca sit third with 10 points from five matches played (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), with 8 goals scored and just 4 conceded. They average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 allowed per game, and over their last five matches they've collected three wins, one draw and one loss, with victories in their two most recent outings. Their most productive stretch comes between minutes 31 and 45, and the goals have been shared between Alexis Vega, Helinho and Iván López, each with one to his name.

Juárez's outlook is radically different. They sit dead last in the table with zero points: five matches, five losses, just 3 goals scored against 15 allowed, an average of 0.6 goals scored and 3 conceded per game, and 0% clean sheets. Over their last five matches they won the first two of that stretch but have since dropped three in a row. Óscar Estupiñán, with two goals, is their top offensive threat, alongside José Luis Rodríguez.

The head-to-head record doesn't favor the visitors either: of eight meetings, Toluca have won five, two ended in draws, and Juárez have managed just one win, with the home side holding a lopsided 17-9 edge in goals.

Probable lineups

With low reliability, Toluca could line up with Hugo González in goal; Federico Pereira, Bruno Méndez, Jesús Gallardo and Brian García across the back line; Franco Romero, Jesús Angulo, Helinho and Alexis Vega in midfield; and Federico Viñas leading the attack, alongside Everardo López as an extra defensive piece.

Juárez, with a higher-confidence projected lineup, would set up with Sebastián Jurado between the posts; Jesús Murillo, Javier Aquino, Francisco Nevárez, Haret Ortega and Gilberto Sepúlveda on defense; José Luis Rodríguez, Denzell García, Jairo Torres and Guilherme Castilho in midfield; and Óscar Estupiñán up front.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model, based on this season's trends, shows a clear edge for the home side:

It's a wide gap, consistent with what both teams' records show so far this tournament. The expected goals estimate also points to a match with Toluca dominating offensively: 2.73 expected goals for the home side against 0.93 for the visitors, for a combined total of 3.65. Our trends also put the probability of over 2.5 goals at 60% and the chance of both teams scoring at 48%. It's worth noting this is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line.

With Toluca looking to keep their steady pace near the top and Juárez trying to snap a run that has left them pointless, Nemesio Díez hosts a match with fairly clear-cut roles before the ball even starts rolling.