Toronto FC and CF Montreal Battle for Pride at the Bottom of the Eastern Conference

Down at the bottom of the Eastern Conference table, there isn't much room for optimism, but somebody has to win at BMO Field. Toronto FC host CF Montreal in a direct head-to-head between two teams that have spent the whole season looking over their shoulders rather than up the table, in a matchup from MLS.

The numbers don't lie: Toronto sit 13th with 29 points, the product of 6 wins, 11 draws and 10 losses in 27 matches, with 39 goals scored and 51 conceded. Montreal are just one rung lower, in 15th place, with 24 points (6 wins, 6 draws, 15 losses) and a goal differential of minus 20, the worse of the two marks. The gap between them in the standings is just 5 points, which explains why this clash carries so much weight for both sides.

Recent form doesn't exactly invite optimism either. Over their last five matches, Toronto FC have managed just one win, one draw and three losses. Montreal arrive with a similar record over that same stretch: two wins and three losses, with no draws in between. Neither side comes in with the kind of momentum you'd expect from a team ready to pull off an upset.

Outside the context of this matchup, it's worth looking at how each team performs based on home or away form in MLS this season: at home, Toronto FC average 2.064 goals scored and 2.006 allowed per game across 14 appearances, without a single clean sheet. Montreal, on the road, average just 1.163 goals scored to 2.762 allowed across 13 matches, with clean sheets in 8% of those games. These are different samples than the overall tournament record, but they help explain the pattern: both teams concede with ease.

The head-to-head history between the two also leaves little doubt about who has had the upper hand: across 8 meetings, Toronto FC have won 3, there have been 3 draws, and CF Montreal have won 2, with a combined 17 goals for the home side against 10 for the visitors.

Probable Lineups

On the home side, Robin Fraser's projected XI would keep Luka Gavran between the posts, with Walker Zimmerman, Benjamin Kuscevic and Richie Laryea across the back line alongside Matheus Pereira. In midfield, look for Daniel Sallói, Niklas Dorsch, Theo Corbeanu, Alonso Coello and Derrick Etienne, with Josh Sargent leading the attack: Sargent and Sallói actually share the top spot among the team's home scorers with 7 goals each, according to this season's trends.

For CF Montreal, the probable lineup would have Sebastian Breza in goal, a back line of Jalen Neal, Brayan Ceballos and Brandan Craig, and a midfield of Luca Petrasso, Victor Loturi, Matty Longstaff and Samuel Piette. Up top, Prince Owusu (the team's top road scorer with 15 goals in the sample cited), Alexis Sanchez and Daniel Rios would round out the attacking trio. It's worth noting that both lineups are projections based on recent matches, not confirmed starting elevens.

What Do the Numbers Say?

Our model gives a slight edge to the home side, though not enough for anyone to call it a clear favorite.

This is our own estimate based on this season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. Expected goals back up that even but attack minded reading: 1.64 for Toronto and 1.17 for Montreal, for a total of 2.80. Other indicators from our model point in the same direction: a 74% probability that the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance that both teams score.

With two defenses conceding goals without shame and two attacks that need points by any means necessary, BMO Field could produce a game that stays open from start to finish. The question isn't whether there will be goals, but who turns them into the points both sides so badly need in the standings.