Union Saint-Gilloise favored as Hapoel Be'er Sheva seeks a response in the Europa League

Four points against one. That's the snapshot heading into this Europa League league-phase clash between Union Saint-Gilloise and Hapoel Be'er Sheva, two sides arriving at the Merkur Spiel-Arena with different needs but the same goal: grab three points and climb a table that's still far from settled.

Union Saint-Gilloise come in with one win and one draw from their two matches in the competition, with 4 goals scored and just 1 conceded, a record that has them sitting 12th with 4 points. Looking beyond the Europa League at the club's broader recent form (their last five matches overall), David Hubert's side have three wins and two draws, with no losses in that stretch. In this season's Europa League, across just two matches, the Belgian club has kept a clean sheet half the time and tends to do its damage between the 16th and 30th minutes. Sekou Keita, Mateo Biondic and Relebohile Mofokeng stand out as the scorers in that small sample.

On the other side, Hapoel Be'er Sheva are off to a tougher start: one draw and one loss in the competition, with just 1 goal scored and 2 conceded, leaving them 24th with a single point. Over their last five matches overall, though, Ran Kozuch's team shows a different face, with three wins, one draw and one loss. In their Europa League sample this season, also two matches, the Israeli side has leaned toward scoring in the second half, with the 46th to 60th minute window their most productive stretch, and Amankwah Forson their top scorer in that particular stat.

The points gap between the two sides in the standings is 3 points, something that, with only two matchdays played, should be read with caution: the table is only just starting to take shape.

Probable lineups

For Union Saint-Gilloise, rated with medium reliability based on recent history, the projected XI has Herve Koffi in goal, a back line of Massire Sylla, Nikki Havenaar and Ondrej Kricfalusi, a packed midfield of Besfort Zeneli, Kamiel Van de Perre, Louis Patris, Guilherme Smith and Darius Olaru, and an attacking duo of Mateo Biondic and Relebohile Mofokeng.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva, with lower reliability in the projection of their likely XI, would line up with Ofir Marciano in goal, a back four of Pedro Amador, Guy Mizrahi, Miguel Vitor and Djibril Diop, a midfield of Niv Yehoshua, Amankwah Forson, Eliel Peretz and Mohammad Kna'an, and a front two made up of Muhammad Abu Rumi and Adrian Ugarriza.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model gives a clear edge to the Belgian club, though it doesn't rule out a surprise:

This is our own estimate, not a betting line, and the expected goals back up that read: 1.87 for Union Saint-Gilloise versus 0.80 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva, for a projected total of 2.66 goals in the match. It's not a foregone conclusion, but it is a gap in quality that the model itself recognizes.

With Union Saint-Gilloise looking to build on their strong start and Hapoel Be'er Sheva needing to turn around a rough run in the competition, the match at the Merkur Spiel-Arena promises action on the scoreboard and a direct fight for points that, at this stage of the Europa League, are still worth double.