Union Santa Fe Storm Back to Rout Aldosivi in Mar del Plata

Aldosivi got off to a fast start with an early goal, but ended up on the wrong end of a rout at home as Union Santa Fe pulled off a resounding 3-1 win at Jose Maria Minella in a match in Argentina's Primera Division. The visiting side flipped the scoreline with a devastating second half, including a brace from Cristian Tarragona, and held on despite some late scares.

A first half for Aldosivi, a second half for Union

The home side went ahead in the 17th minute when, off a corner kick, Alan Sosa whipped in a cross that Andres Vombergar headed home to make it 1-0. With that lead in hand, Aldosivi controlled the first half without major trouble, though Union was already giving warning signs through Tarragona's shots, which had yet to find their mark.

The second half was a different story. In the 50th minute, Lucas Menossi struck from outside the box, curling one into the top right corner off an assist from Marcelo Estigarribia, to make it 1-1. Eleven minutes later came the blow that changed the course of the match: in the 61st minute, Tarragona headed home from close range to make it 1-2, and just two minutes after that, in the 63rd, he finished with his left foot inside the box off a Mauro Luna Diale assist to make it 1-3. In the span of thirteen minutes, Union Santa Fe had flipped an unfavorable scoreline with three goals.

The closing stretch brought a bizarre moment: in the 84th minute, the referee showed a red card to Julian Palacios, but the call went to VAR review and the ejection was ultimately upheld. Aldosivi tried to respond by throwing on attacking substitutes, but could not pull a goal back, and the match ended 1-3.

The numbers behind the match

The stats reflect the dominance the visitors ended up holding, especially in the second half. Union Santa Fe was sharper going forward and controlled possession more effectively.

The estimated xG calculated after the fact based on shot locations also favors the visitors: 1.939 versus 0.986 for Aldosivi. The figure backs up what the scoreline showed: Union created more dangerous chances, especially during the second half, when it fully tilted the match in its favor.

A forecast that only partly held up

Beforehand, our model had projected a very even match: 34% odds for Aldosivi, 32% for a draw and 34% for Union Santa Fe, with expected goals of 1.13 for the home side and 1.12 for the visitors. The outcome ended up landing on one of the scenarios the model foresaw, a visitor's win, though the final two goal margin far exceeded the tight balance that projection had anticipated.

What the result leaves behind

With this win, Union Santa Fe moves to 7 points in its group, the product of 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in 6 matches played. Aldosivi, for its part, will need to review how it managed its early lead: the team looked solid over the first 45 minutes but fell apart in the face of a visiting side that was far more clinical when the match demanded it most. Tarragona, with his two goals scored just two minutes apart, ended up being the decisive figure of the night in Mar del Plata.