Villarreal Looks to Ease Its Crisis With a Win Over Deportivo at the Ceramica

The Estadio de la Ceramica hosts a matchup that the standings paint as a clash between the desperate and the surprising: Villarreal sits fifteenth with just 2 points from 3 games, while Deportivo de La Coruna sits eighth with 5, still unbeaten in LaLiga. Only 3 points separate the two sides in the table, so the real gap is smaller than the positions suggest.

Villarreal's record in the competition stands at 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 4 goals scored and 5 conceded. Over its last five matches, a sample that blends competitions and shouldn't be confused with the league record above, the club put together two wins and two draws before falling in its most recent outing. Deportivo, for its part, has yet to lose in its 3 league games: 1 win and 2 draws, with 5 goals scored and only 3 allowed. Across its last five fixtures it has two losses, two draws and one win, the latter coming most recently.

It's worth separating the current season stats from another distinct sample in the data, the trends figures, drawn from 3 games as both home and away side in this same LaLiga campaign: there, Villarreal averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game, with 0% clean sheets and its most productive scoring window between the 31st and 45th minutes; Pape Gueye, Nicolas Pepe and Gerard Moreno lead the way as top scorers in that sample, with one goal apiece. Deportivo, in the same type of sample, scores 1.67 and concedes 1 per game, also without a clean sheet, and its most productive stretch falls between the 16th and 30th minutes. There, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang stands out on his own with 3 goals.

The head-to-head record clearly favors Villarreal: of 8 previous meetings, it won 3, drew 4 and lost just 1, scoring 11 goals to 7 conceded.

Probable lineups

Villarreal, based on the probable lineup inferred from its recent matches (medium reliability), would line up with Luiz Junior in goal; a back line of Santiago Mourino, Juan Foyth, Carlos Romero and Renato Veiga; a midfield of Nicolas Pepe, Pape Gueye, Alberto Moleiro and Santi Comesana; and up front, Georges Mikautadze alongside Ayoze Perez.

Deportivo arrives with a probable lineup of low reliability: Leo Roman between the posts, Ximo Navarro, Lucas Noubi, Giacomo Quagliata and Bright Ede across the back, a midfield featuring Mario Soriano, Lorenzo Amatucci, Luismi Cruz and Adria Alti, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang paired with Bil Nsongo up top.

What the numbers say

Our model gives the home side a sizable edge in this LaLiga matchup:

This is our own estimate, not a betting line, and the tilt toward Villarreal is clear: a 63% chance of a home win against 14% for Deportivo, with the draw sitting at 23%. The model also projects a combined total of 3.02 expected goals, consistent with 50% of our trend indicators pointing to over 2.5 goals and 67% suggesting both teams will find the net.

With Villarreal desperate for all three points at home and Deportivo looking to extend its unbeaten run away from A Coruna, La Ceramica promises a game with plenty of action at both ends.