Club América hosts Atlético San Luis looking to keep unbeaten run alive in Liga MX

The tournament leader welcomes a rival that still hasn't found its footing. Club América opens the doors of Estadio Banorte to take on Atlético San Luis in a Liga MX matchup pitting two opposite realities against each other: the unbeaten side ruling the standings against a team still hunting for its first win of the tournament.

How they arrive

América is the only team with a perfect record in terms of avoiding losses: out of three matches played this tournament, it has won two and drawn one, without a single defeat. Its goal difference of 5 scored to just 1 conceded backs up its status as the most solid side so far. Over its last five matches, it has picked up three wins and two draws with no losses. The club averages 1.67 goals scored per game and just 0.33 conceded, keeping a clean sheet in 67% of its outings, and tends to turn up the pressure late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Alejandro Cárdenas, Isaías Violante and Brian Rodríguez share the scoring load with one goal apiece.

On the other side, Atlético San Luis sits in 15th place with just 2 points, the product of two draws and a loss in its three matches played, having conceded more goals (5) than it has scored (4). Its recent form offers little comfort either: three draws and two defeats in its last five outings, with no wins at all. The club concedes an average of 1.67 goals per game and has only kept a clean sheet in 33% of its matches. San Luis tends to do its damage early in the second half, between the 46th and 60th minutes, with Rafa Llorente as its top offensive threat (2 goals).

Head to head

History also tilts in the home side's favor. In the 8 previous meetings between the two clubs, América has won 5, San Luis has won 3 and there have been no draws. In terms of combined goals, the capital club leads 13 to 7 over the side from San Luis, a gap that underscores the current leader's historical edge in this matchup.

Probable lineups

Based on recent matches, América could take the field with Rodolfo Cota in goal; a back line of Cristián Borja, Kevin Álvarez, Ramón Juárez, Dagoberto Espinoza and Sebastián Cáceres; a midfield of Isaías Violante, Érick Sánchez, Alan Cervantes and Raphael Veiga; and Henry Martín leading the attack.

For the visitors, with a more reliable projection, San Luis could line up with Andrés Sánchez in goal; Miguel García, Eduardo Águila and Benjamín Galindo across the back; Lucas Esteves, Sébastien Salles-Lamonge, Óscar Macías and Román Torres in midfield; and a front three of David Rodríguez, Rafa Llorente and Leonardo Flores.

Odds

EnPelotas' own model, which should not be confused with betting odds, gives América a clear edge with a 56% chance of winning, while a draw sits at 27% and a visiting win at just 17%. Expected goals estimates back up that home dominance too: 1.67 for América versus 0.83 for San Luis, for a projected total of 2.5 goals. The trends fall in line with that script: a 67% chance that both teams find the net and a 50% chance the match goes over 2.5 total goals.

What's next

With a 5 point gap separating the two clubs in the standings and recent history clearly favoring the side from Coapa, América arrives as the clear favorite to extend its unbeaten run, though San Luis badly needs a win to pull itself out of the bottom of the table.