England overwhelming favorite against winless Czechia in Nations League

Wembley once again welcomes an England side that's taken some recent bruises to morale but still has the numbers in its favor, and standing in the way will be a Czechia team that still doesn't know what winning in this tournament feels like. The most telling stat of the buildup says it all: in the two previous meetings between these sides, England won both, outscoring Czechia 3-0 across the two matches.

The context of the UEFA Nations League doesn't suggest an upset is coming either. In Group A3, England sits second with 6 points from 3 matches played (2 wins and 1 loss, with 11 goals scored and 3 conceded), 6 points behind unbeaten leaders Spain. Czechia, meanwhile, is bottom of the table with zero points: they've lost all three of their matches and have been outscored 7-2.

Looking at recent form, England's last five matches show three wins and two losses, closing out that stretch with back-to-back victories after an uneven run. Czechia, over that same five-game sample, couldn't manage a single win: one draw and four losses, with their last four outings all ending in defeat.

It's also worth a glance at how both sides have fared in another competition, though these numbers shouldn't be mixed with the Nations League figures: at the 2025 World Cup, playing both home and away, England averaged 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match, with clean sheets in 29% of their 7 games, and their most productive scoring window came between the 31st and 45th minutes. In that same competition and season, but in a much smaller sample of just 3 matches, Czechia averaged 0.667 goals scored per game and conceded 2, without a single clean sheet, and their most dangerous scoring window came right at the start, between the 0 and 15 minute mark.

Probable lineups

These are estimates drawn from recent matches, not confirmed lineups. For England, with low reliability, expect to see names like Jordan Pickford in goal, a back line featuring Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa and Jarell Quansah, and an attacking-minded midfield with Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Anthony Gordon and Declan Rice, with Harry Kane leading the line.

On the Czech side, also with low reliability, Matej Kovar looks set to start in goal, with a back four of Ladislav Krejci, Robin Hranac, Vladimir Coufal and Stepan Chaloupek, and up front Adam Hlozek as the striker supported by Pavel Sulc and Michal Sadilek in midfield.

What the numbers say

Our model has England as a heavy favorite, though it's worth reading the figures carefully before treating them as a given.

These figures come from our own estimate based on this season's trends, not a betting line or a closed prediction. On top of that, our model puts a 65% probability on the match going over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance both teams score, suggesting Wembley could see the visiting goal under constant pressure.

With the head to head record, the group standings and recent form all pointing the same way, everything suggests England will lean on home advantage to pull further clear at the top of Group A3, while Czechia will need more than just stubborn defending to avoid another difficult night.