Krstovic strikes early in the second half as Atalanta beats Monza 1-0 despite being outplayed

Monza ran into the same old problem. The home side dominated, created more chances than its opponent, and still walked away from the U-Power Stadium empty handed. Nikola Krstovic popped up in the 48th minute, just as the second half got underway, to net the only goal of the match and hand Atalanta a 1-0 win that, numbers in hand, tells you little about what actually happened on the field.

That's because the story of this match was not the scoreline. Monza went into the break with a blank scoreboard despite being far superior in terms of chances created: between the 5th and 23rd minutes the home side strung together a flurry of shots (Jay Robinson, Gustavo Varela, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, Eddy Kouadio) that all crashed into the resistance of Marco Carnesecchi between the posts. Atalanta's goalkeeper became the main obstacle for a home side that managed to string together as many as four attempts in a single sequence in the 23rd minute, unable to break the deadlock.

Atalanta, for its part, stayed patient and dangerous on the counter through Charles De Ketelaere and Nicola Zalewski, and that patience finally paid off right as play resumed after the break. In the 47th minute Leonardo Colombo picked up a yellow card for a foul on De Ketelaere, and just a minute later, with Monza's defense still getting reorganized, Krstovic finished with his left foot from the center of the box to make it 0-1.

A Monza side that kept pushing to the end

The home side did not throw in the towel. With Exequiel Zeballos, Dany Mota, Andrea Colpani and Adam Bakoune coming on, Monza looked to reshape its attack, and between the 80th and 83rd minutes it again created clear chances through Zeballos and Colpani, once more without luck. In stoppage time, with four extra minutes added on, it was Atalanta that came closest to doubling the lead, with a Franck Kessie header that also ran into the keeper's resistance. The match wrapped up with three yellow cards shown in the final minutes (Charles De Ketelaere, Andrea Carboni and Andrea Colpani), a reflection of the late tension.

The numbers behind a fruitless dominance

The stats sheet backs up what played out on the field: more possession, more shots and more corners for Monza, but no reward to show for it.

The post-match xG estimate, calculated by our model based on shot location, also favors the home side: 2.09 versus 1.49. Those numbers back up the sense that Monza deserved at least something out of this one, but could not turn its persistence into goals.

The projection we published in our preview gave Atalanta a 53% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and just 22% for Monza, with expected goals of 1.86 for the visitors and 1.15 for the home side. The final result lined up with the favoritism we gave Atalanta, though the way the match actually played out, with Monza dominating in attacking volume, was not what that projection suggested.

What the result means in the standings

In Serie A, Monza remains in 18th place with 7 points from 11 matches played (2 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses), while Atalanta sits in 12th with 14 points from the same number of matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses). The gap between the two sides in the table stands at 7 points. For Monza, the loss confirms an uphill season; for Atalanta, the three points come on the road and without needing to control the game, which is no small thing away from home.