Red Bulls host Toronto FC with history and the odds on their side

Sports Illustrated Stadium plays host to a clash between two teams with nothing settled in the Eastern Conference race: New York Red Bulls against Toronto FC, in MLS action. The home side sits eighth with 36 points while the visitors are just three back in 11th. Only 3 points separate the two clubs in the standings, so the result could shake up the order considerably in a tightly bunched section of the table.

The Red Bulls arrive with a record of 10 wins, 6 draws and 13 losses in 29 matches this season, scoring 39 goals and conceding 54. Over their last five matches they've gone three wins and two losses, an uneven stretch but one with more victories than defeats of late. At home in this MLS campaign (across a sample of 14 matches), they're averaging 1.574 goals scored and 1.926 conceded per game, with clean sheets in just 7% of those outings and their most productive stretch coming between minutes 0 and 15. Julian Hall leads the attack with 11 goals in that sample, followed by Jorge Ruvalcaba with 8.

Toronto FC, meanwhile, has posted 7 wins, 12 draws and 10 losses on the season, with 44 goals for and 55 against. Their recent form is more worrying: three losses, one win and one draw in their last five matches. On the road in MLS 2026 (a 13-match sample), they're averaging just 0.758 goals scored per game against 1.762 conceded, though with a 23% clean sheet rate, a better defensive number than the Red Bulls post at home. Their most productive stretch comes late, between minutes 76 and 90. Daniel Sallói and Josh Sargent lead their attack with 7 goals apiece in that sample.

A head-to-head record clearly favoring the home side

The history between these two clubs is lopsided: of 8 meetings, the Red Bulls have won 4, there have been 4 draws and Toronto FC has yet to pick up a single win. The aggregate scoreline reads 14-4 in favor of the New Yorkers, a trend that carries some weight even if it guarantees nothing on the field this weekend.

Projected lineups

Based on recent lineups, New York Red Bulls could take the field with Ethan Horvath in goal; Dylan Nealis, Julián Bazán, Devin Padelford and Justin Che across the back line; Mohammed Sofo, Adri Mehmeti and Ronald Donkor in midfield; and Cade Cowell, Jorge Ruvalcaba and Julian Hall up top.

Toronto FC, also as a projection, would likely line up with Luka Gavran between the posts; Benjamín Kuscevic, Matheus Pereira, Richie Laryea and Walker Zimmerman on defense; Niklas Dorsch, Alonso Coello, Theo Corbeanu and Lewis Morgan in midfield; with Josh Sargent and Daniel Sallói forming the attacking pair.

What the numbers say

According to our model, there's a clear favorite here, though not an overwhelming one. Here's how the probabilities break down:

The Red Bulls go in as favorites, but with Toronto FC sitting at 29% and the draw at 26%, the gap isn't as wide as the head-to-head record might suggest. This is our own projection drawn from season-long trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. Our model also projects expected goals of 1.7 for the home side and 1.33 for the visitors, a combined 3.03, consistent with a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 40% chance both teams find the net.

With the table so tightly packed in the middle of the Eastern Conference, every point matters for both sides. The Red Bulls will look to lean on their recent history against this opponent and home-field advantage, while Toronto FC will need to snap an unfavorable run if they hope to grab three points on the road.