Newell's and Riestra look to break out of their rut in a tight Argentine Primera clash

Newell's Old Boys and Deportivo Riestra meet at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa in Argentina's Primera División, a matchup between two teams still searching for momentum this season and who, per the Group A standings, are separated by just 2 points.

The hosts sit in 14th place, with a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses in 4 matches played, scoring 4 goals and conceding 5. Their offensive output has been modest: 0.76 goals scored per game and 1.24 allowed, with clean sheets in just 25% of matches. Over their last five outings, La Lepra have gone draw, win, loss, draw, loss, just one win in that stretch, a stat that underlines how uneven their form has been. Ignacio Ramírez leads the club with 4 goals, followed by Oscar Salomón with 2.

Deportivo Riestra, sitting in 15th, haven't fared much better on the results front, though their record is a touch more solid: 2 wins and 2 losses in 4 matches, with no draws, scoring 6 goals and conceding just 3. Their scoring rate stands out for how low it is, just 0.12 goals per game, though their defensive solidity (1 goal conceded per game on average) offsets some of that shortfall. Over their last five matches, the club from the south of Buenos Aires province have posted two wins, a draw and two losses, closing out that run with a victory. Antony Alonso is their top offensive threat, with 2 goals on the season.

The head-to-head record leans slightly toward the home side: of the 5 meetings between the clubs, Newell's have won 1 and Deportivo Riestra have yet to win any, with 4 draws in between. In terms of combined goals, the gap is minimal: 9 for Newell's against 8 for Riestra, underscoring how even this rivalry has historically been.

Possible lineups

As a probable lineup, and with low reliability, Newell's could go with Josué Reinatti in goal, backed by a defensive line of Jeronimo Russo, Lautaro Giannetti, Bruno Cabrera and Nicolás Goitea. In midfield, Walter Mazzantti, Facundo Guch, Luca Regiardo and Walter Núñez could feature, with Matías Cóccaro leading the attack.

For the visitors, Deportivo Riestra could line up with Ignacio Arce between the posts, a back four of Carlos Quintana, Nicolás Sansotre, Mariano Bracamonte and either Cristian Paz or Facundo Miño, while in midfield Antony Alonso, Pablo Monje and Milton Céliz would stand out, with Alexander Díaz as the target man up top.

Match probabilities

The numbers point to an evenly matched game, with a draw as the slightly more likely outcome and a moderate edge for the home side. This is our own estimate drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. Along the same lines, the model projects 0.88 expected goals for Newell's and 0.68 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra, for a combined total of 1.56, a figure in keeping with a match unlikely to produce much fireworks in front of goal: the probability of more than 2.5 total goals sits at just 6%, and the odds of both teams scoring stand at 8%.

With both sides needing points to move up the table and a history that offers no clear favorite, this matchup at the Marcelo Bielsa shapes up as a tight contest, with thin margins and few certainties.