Spain comes from behind against Croatia with a Mikel Merino brace to take sole control of Group A3

Perisic put Croatia ahead with a header at the quarter-hour mark at Stadion Poljud, but Spain ended up taking the match 2-1 thanks to Mikel Merino, who scored twice in the second half. The result leaves Spain atop Group A3 of the UEFA Nations League, while Croatia suffered another loss that pushes it further out of contention.

The start was a gut punch for Spain's plans. Croatia, which barely touched the ball, found the net through a direct route: a cross into the box and a header from Ivan Perisic in the 16th minute to make it 1-0. Before the goal, Josip Stanisic had already given a warning with a header that grazed the post, and through the first twenty minutes Croatia created more danger than its share of possession, just 27.9 percent, would have suggested.

Spain, in total control of the ball, took time to turn that dominance into clear chances. Oyarzabal tried a header before halftime without finding the target, and the 1-0 scoreline held through the end of the first half despite the visitors' territorial command.

The turnaround in the second half

The second half began with Spain pressing down the flanks, and it paid off in the 60th minute: Mikel Merino finished with his left foot from the middle of the box, just inside the left post, after an assist from Dani Olmo, leveling the score at 1-1. The equalizer changed the whole tenor of the match, and Croatia began to struggle defensively.

Things got even harder for the home side in the 78th minute, when Perisic picked up a second yellow card for a dangerous challenge and left Croatia down to ten men. With a man advantage and space to work with, Spain put the game away in the 87th minute: Merino again, again with his left foot and from the middle of the box, this time assisted by Martín Zubimendi, for the final 1-2.

The numbers behind the dominance

Spain's possession was overwhelming and showed up clearly in the passing totals, though the scoreboard took a while to reflect that gap.

According to our post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken in the game, Croatia generated 1.698 expected goals to Spain's 1.169, a figure that contrasts with the final result and confirms that the home side had real attacking arguments despite ending up defeated and down a man.

The result also strays quite a bit from our pre-match projections: our model gave Spain a 78 percent chance of winning, against 7 percent for Croatia and 15 percent for a draw, with expected goals of 2.72 for the visitors versus just 0.75 for the hosts. The early script, with Croatia ahead on the scoreboard for a good chunk of the match, didn't fit that forecast, though the eventual outcome did end up matching Spain's status as favorite.

What the match leaves behind

With this win, Spain reaches 12 points from four matches played, with a perfect record and a goal difference of plus 7, sitting atop Group A3. Croatia remains on 3 points with just one win in its four matches and a goal difference of minus 10, a 9 point gap to the leaders that sums up the night at the Poljud pretty well: plenty of Spanish possession, an early Croatian goal that wasn't enough, and a Merino brace that ended up deciding everything in the closing stretch.